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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 25/10/2019

2019-10-25 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,150  3,240  3,728  4,290  150 -712 4,141 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,280  3,220  3,737  4,290  150 -703 4,110 
Costal Shandong 6,260  3,190  3,710  4,290  150 -731 4,115 
Jiangsu 6,340  3,130  3,677  4,290  150 -763 4,095 
Guangdong 6,350  3,070  3,632  4,290  150 -808 4,093 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,150  3,240  3,728  4,242  150 -664 4,080 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,280  3,220  3,737  4,242  150 -655 4,049 
Costal Shandong 6,260  3,190  3,710  4,242  150 -683 4,054 
Jiangsu 6,340  3,130  3,677  4,242  150 -715 4,035 
Guangdong 6,350  3,070  3,632  4,242  150 -760 4,032 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,150  3,240  3,790  3,382  150  258  2,914 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,280  3,220  3,800  3,382  150  268  2,881 
Costal Shandong 6,260  3,190  3,772  3,382  150  240  2,886 
Jiangsu 6,340  3,130  3,741  3,382  150  209  2,866 
Guangdong 6,350  3,070  3,695  3,382  150  163  2,863 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,150  3,240  3,667  3,247  150  270  2,899 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,280  3,220  3,674  3,247  150  277  2,869 
Costal Shandong 6,260  3,190  3,647  3,247  150  250  2,874 
Jiangsu 6,340  3,130  3,614  3,247  150  217  2,855 
Guangdong 6,350  3,070  3,568  3,247  150  171  2,853 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,150  3,240  3,697  3,470  150  77  3,142 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,280  3,220  3,706  3,470  150  86  3,112 
Costal Shandong 6,260  3,190  3,678  3,470  150  58  3,116 
Jiangsu 6,340  3,130  3,646  3,470  150  26  3,098 
Guangdong 6,350  3,070  3,600  3,470  150  -20  3,095 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,300  3,390  3,720  3,430  160  130  3,228 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,150  3,240  3,576  3,550  160  -134  3,408 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,280  3,220  3,581  3,570  160  -149  3,407 
Boxing, Shandong 6,360  3,220  3,594  3,590  160  -156  3,416 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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