Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 25/10/2019

2019-10-25 www.cofeed.com

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,150	3,240	3,728	4,290	150	-712	4,141
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,280	3,220	3,737	4,290	150	-703	4,110
Costal Shandong	6,260	3,190	3,710	4,290	150	-731	4,115
Jiangsu	6,340	3,130	3,677	4,290	150	-763	4,095
Guangdong	6,350	3,070	3,632	4,290	150	-808	4,093

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,150	3,240	3,728	4,242	150	-664	4,080
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,280	3,220	3,737	4,242	150	-655	4,049
Costal Shandong	6,260	3,190	3,710	4,242	150	-683	4,054
Jiangsu	6,340	3,130	3,677	4,242	150	-715	4,035
Guangdong	6,350	3,070	3,632	4,242	150	-760	4,032

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,150	3,240	3,790	3,382	150	258	2,914
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,280	3,220	3,800	3,382	150	268	2,881
Costal Shandong	6,260	3,190	3,772	3,382	150	240	2,886
Jiangsu	6,340	3,130	3,741	3,382	150	209	2,866
Guangdong	6,350	3,070	3,695	3,382	150	163	2,863

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,150	3,240	3,667	3,247	150	270	2,899
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,280	3,220	3,674	3,247	150	277	2,869
Costal Shandong	6,260	3,190	3,647	3,247	150	250	2,874
Jiangsu	6,340	3,130	3,614	3,247	150	217	2,855
Guangdong	6,350	3,070	3,568	3,247	150	171	2,853

Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,150	3,240	3,697	3,470	150	77	3,142
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,280	3,220	3,706	3,470	150	86	3,112
Costal Shandong	6,260	3,190	3,678	3,470	150	58	3,116
Jiangsu	6,340	3,130	3,646	3,470	150	26	3,098
Guangdong	6,350	3,070	3,600	3,470	150	-20	3,095

Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang	6,300	3,390	3,720	3,430	160	130	3,228
Dalian, Liaoning	6,150	3,240	3,576	3,550	160	-134	3,408
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,280	3,220	3,581	3,570	160	-149	3,407
Boxing, Shandong	6,360	3,220	3,594	3,590	160	-156	3,416
Remarks: 1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory. 2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%; Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%. 3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price. 4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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