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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 28/10/2019

2019-10-28 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,230  3,180  3,696  4,233  150 -687 4,050 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,280  3,200  3,721  4,233  150 -662 4,038 
Costal Shandong 6,320  3,160  3,697  4,233  150 -686 4,028 
Jiangsu 6,300  3,100  3,646  4,233  150 -737 4,033 
Guangdong 6,310  3,030  3,593  4,233  150 -790 4,031 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,230  3,180  3,696  4,184  150 -638 3,988 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,280  3,200  3,721  4,184  150 -613 3,976 
Costal Shandong 6,320  3,160  3,697  4,184  150 -637 3,966 
Jiangsu 6,300  3,100  3,646  4,184  150 -688 3,971 
Guangdong 6,310  3,030  3,593  4,184  150 -741 3,968 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,230  3,180  3,758  3,340  150  268  2,841 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,280  3,200  3,784  3,340  150  294  2,828 
Costal Shandong 6,320  3,160  3,760  3,340  150  270  2,818 
Jiangsu 6,300  3,100  3,709  3,340  150  219  2,823 
Guangdong 6,310  3,030  3,656  3,340  150  166  2,820 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,230  3,180  3,634  3,204  150  280  2,826 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,280  3,200  3,658  3,204  150  304  2,815 
Costal Shandong 6,320  3,160  3,634  3,204  150  280  2,806 
Jiangsu 6,300  3,100  3,583  3,204  150  229  2,810 
Guangdong 6,310  3,030  3,530  3,204  150  176  2,808 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,230  3,180  3,665  3,470  150  45  3,123 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,280  3,200  3,690  3,470  150  70  3,112 
Costal Shandong 6,320  3,160  3,666  3,470  150  46  3,102 
Jiangsu 6,300  3,100  3,615  3,470  150  -6  3,107 
Guangdong 6,310  3,030  3,561  3,470  150  -59  3,105 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,380  3,330  3,685  3,430  160  95  3,212 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,230  3,180  3,541  3,550  160  -169  3,392 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,280  3,200  3,565  3,570  160  -165  3,407 
Boxing, Shandong 6,380  3,200  3,581  3,590  160  -169  3,412 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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