Today (Oct. 28), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

 

Soybean meal: US soybean futures fell on an accelerating harvest and on disappointing Chinese purchases. China and the US are close to finalizing their phase one agreement and China is likely to import soybean meal, cottonseed meal and meat from Brazil after Brazilian President visited Beijing, so meal futures continue their early losses on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices drop by 20-60 yuan/tonne in weak trading. Specifically, the price settles at 3,030-3,220 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 3,220, Shandong 3,140-3,150, Jiangsu 3,080-3,100, Dongguan 3,030-3,050, and Guangxi 3,030-3,060). DCE crush margins for soybeans from South America and US PNW have rallied with sharp rises in soybean oil prices last week, and DCE meal futures are also in the adjustment due to the arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals. Soybean meal spots are thus falling back to adjust. But some parts of soybean imports now are not for mills, so some mills have to suspend their production due to the shortage in commercial supply from late this month to early next month. And hog feed consumption has posted a month-on-month increase in September with the rebound in the sow amount. Soybean meal stocks now total 557,000 tonnes now, a decline of 3% from the previous week, and some mills in North China have set severe delivery quantities. Soybean meal prices will not slump with tight supplies, and will move with a strengthening trend due to sharply lower estimates for US soybean stocks and an inflation expectation. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment. 

 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal declines in price today, of which it settles down 10-50 yuan/tonne at 2,320-2,400 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,340, down 10; Guangdong 2,400, down 50; Fujian not offered). The trade war has eased and US soybeans have been harvested and gone marketing. Besides, aquaculture will enter into an off-season as the weather gets colder. Moreover, the overall demand for meals is poor due to the lingering swine fever, so there is little improvement in demand. Hence, all these factors dampen rapeseed meal prices. However, rapeseed meal inventory fell by 17% from the previous week to 19,500 tonnes in coastal areas last Friday. Besides, rapeseed supply is still tightening under the pending issues between China and Canada, which could limit the declines of short-term rapeseed meal. Therefore, the overall market outlook of rapeseed meal may still stay strong with fluctuations. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make replenishment.

 

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal price are mostly stable with some rises today. It is 9,100-9,500 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content, 9,400-9,800 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, up by 100 yuan partially at 9,900-10,100 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and10,100-10,500 yuan/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Along with few imports arriving at ports and normal consumption speed, total stocks at ports post an downside trend. Most traders now have tight supplies and are stalling on the sales, so fishmeal prices have some rises today. Domestic fishmeal market is predicted to stay stable with a strengthening trend today. But domestic aquaculture has already ended, and the African swine fever is spreading, so fishmeal consumption will be slow in the near futures. This will continue to subdue the market. 

 

Stocks at port: Huangpu 100,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 31,000 tonnes, Shanghai 58,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. 

 

FOB prices from foreign merchants today: it is 1,110 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content and 1,310-1,330 USD/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard SD with 65% protein content is 1,100 USD/tonne, and super SD with 68% protein content at 1,300 USD/tonne.

 

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal today strongly moves in a range of 30-60 yuan/tonne today.

The cottonseed meal market is supported as sow stock begins to rebound from the bottom; the production of pig feed in September increased from the previous month; factories basically have no inventory. But the demand is affected by narrowed price gap between soybean meal and cottonseed meal. And China and U.S. are close to nailing down a “Phase 1” trade deal. Besides, the president of Brazil is visiting China, which may lead China to open for Brazilian soybean meal, cottonseed meal and meats imports. Meals on DCE today fall back with low open, and spot soybean meal down by 20-60 yuan/tonne. Therefore, cottonseed meal market is dragged down by all these factors. However, the sharp fall in U.S. Soybean and inflation expectations have made the overall trend of agricultural futures better, so cottonseed meal price is predicted to stay strong with fluctuations. Buyers had better not chase up prices too high and keep eyes on whether cottonseed meal will follow soybean meal to fall back.