Price: The market for imported soybeans is affected by huge supplies of Chinese soybeans and subdued demand at home. And Chinese government has offered tariff-free quota of US soybean purchases, which will increase soybean imports. Due to increasing supplies, imported soybean prices are predicted to steady with a weakening trend in the near term. 

Crush: Mills continue to pick up their operation rates for soybean crush. The crush at domestic mills totals 1,749,950 tonnes (meal 1,382,460 tonnes and oil 332,490 tonnes), up 22,150 tonnes, or 1.28%, from 1,727,800 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, the operation rate (capacity utilization) is 48.27%, up 0.61 percentage points from 47.66% in the previous week. Soybean crush is predicted to decline slightly to around 1.67 mln tonnes next week due to soybean shortages, and to return to 1.77 mln tonnes that following week. Some soybean imports now are for state reserves, instead of for mills, so some mills may have to halt production due to a lack of soybeans late this month and early November.

Soybean crush nationwide is estimated at 6.85 mln tonnes in October at current utilization rate, below the 7.55 mln tonnes in September and also below 8.26 mln tonnes of the corresponding period last year.  

As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 5,432,550 tonnes in the crushing year of 2019/20 (from October 1st, 2019), down 1,542,735 tonnes, or 22.11%, from 6,975,285 tonnes of the same period last year. In 2019 (from Jan. 1st, 2019), national soybean crush amounts to 67,473,965 tonnes, down 4,931,115 tonnes, or 6.81%, from 72,405,080 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2018. 

Inventory: Soybean stocks continue to decline this week as the crush continues to increase to 1.74 mln tonnes and with few shipments discharged from the ports to mills. In the week as of October 18th, imported soybean stocks total 3,3119,000 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, down 606,100 tonnes by 15.44% from 3,925,100 tonnes last week and down by 51.82% from 6,890,000 tonnes of the same period last year. Soybean crush will drop slightly to 1.67 mln tonnes next week, so the stocks will likely drop accordingly.

Import and its outlook: According to Cofeed, imported soybean is 26 cargoes with 1.699 mln tonnes this week, a total of 92 cargoes with 5.962 mln tonnes for October so far. The import is predicted to be 115 cargoes with 7.5071 mln tonnes for October, 8.0 mln tonnes for November and 8.10 mln tonnes for December, and 7.0 mln tonnes for January, 2020. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.  

Price: This week (Oct. 21-25), domestic soybean meal prices post an upward trend overall. As of this Friday, the price settles up 30-90 yuan/tonne at 3070-3270 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions. 

Inventory: Soybean meal is trading quite well this week, a total of 2.45396 mln tonnes as of this Friday, a weekly increase of 228.08% from 747,970 tonnes in the previous week. The trading is mostly signed on forward basis, but soybean meal stocks also slightly decrease due to growing delivery. In the week as of October 25th, the inventory totals 556,500 tonnes, down 17,300 tonnes by 3.01% from 573,800 tonnes last week and down by 37.72% from 893,600 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. Despite the fractionally lower crush next week, soybean meal stocks will remain little changed with slower trading. The overall tight supplies may ease only after mid-November. 

Price: This week (Oct. 21-25), domestic soybean oil prices rise for a third consecutive week. As of this Friday, the price for GB Grade I settles up 150-300 yuan/tonne at 6,350-6,410 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions. 

Inventory: Soybean oil stocks continue to decline this week on a quickening delivery pace with strong trading after the National Day holiday and on the rare scenario where the market was trading well for eight sessions in row. In the week as of Oct. 25th, China’s commercial inventory has totaled 1,314,450 tonnes, down 27,020 tonnes by 2.01% from 1,341,470 tonnes last week, down 34,550 tonnes by 2.56% from 1,349,000 tonnes last month, and down 542,550 tonnes by 29.22% from 1,857,000 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,358,000 tonnes.