China’s Palm Oil Stocks and Arrivals Weekly (Week 43, 2019)

2019-10-29 www.cofeed.com

I. National stocks

This week (as of Oct. 25), edible palm oil stock totals 580,000 tonnes at domestic ports, up 1.4% from 572,100 tonnes last week and up 30,500 tonnes or 5.5% from 549,500 tonnes the same period last month and up 163,500 tonnes or 39.25% from 416,500 tonnes the same period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports totals 138,400 tonnes, down 11,400 tonnes or 7.6% from 149,800 tonnes last week.

Edible palm oil stock keeps rising this week. Due to the profitable import, palm oil importers are still buying cargoes. According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the monthly import volume of RBD palm olein from October to November is around 500,000-550,000 tonnes, and imports in December are expected to be 500,000 tonnes. It is predicted that late palm oil stock may still increase due to the poor demand but relatively slowly.

Region /Port	Edible Palm Oil Stocks（0'000 mT）					Industrial Palm Oil Stocks
Region /Port	W43	W42	Change	M-O-M	Y-O-Y	W43	W42	Change
Tianjin Port	9.8	11.05	-1.25	-4.80%	3.60%	2.9	3.1	-0.2
Hebei	0.5	0.65	-0.15	25.00%	0.00%	0.12	0.15	-0.03
Shandong Port	3.72	4.13	-0.41	-16.40%	118.82%	1.43	1.93	-0.5
East China	16.2	16.6	-0.4	15.06%	22.45%	6.95	7.35	-0.4
Guangdong	20.85	16.9	3.95	4.70%	58.92%	2	2.1	-0.1
Guangxi	3.33	3.98	-0.65	1.80%	66.50%	0.44	0.35	0.09
Fujian	3.6	3.9	-0.3	41.20%	118.18%	0	0	0
Total：	58	57.21	0.79	5.55%	39.25%	13.84	14.98	-1.14

Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years

II. Goods Arrivals

According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the estimate of import volume for October this week is 670,000 tonnes unchanged with last week (RBD palm olein 550,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes), and the estimate for November this week is unchanged with last week at 620,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 500,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes). The estimate for December is at 620,000 tonnes up by 50,000 tonnes from last week (RBD palm olein 500,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes).

III. Margins and Shipments

Date	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/mT）	Duty Paid (RBM/mT)	DCE (RBM/mT)	Import Margin
2019/10/21	Nov. 2019	567.5	4837	4878	41
2019/10/21	Dec. 2019	575	4900	4878	-22
2019/10/22	Nov. 2019	565	4820	4846	26
2019/10/22	Dec. 2019	570	4861	4846	-15
2019/10/23	Nov. 2019	580	4951	4920	-31
2019/10/23	Dec. 2019	585	4993	4920	-73
2019/10/23	Jan.2020	600	5119	4920	-199
2019/10/24	Dec. 2019	580	4962	4980	18
2019/10/24	Jan.2020	597.5	5109	4980	-129
2019/10/25	Dec. 2019	605	5164	5068	-96

Date	Cargoes	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/mT）	Duty Paid (RBM/mT)	Qty. （0'000 mT）
2019/10/21	1	Dec	Unq		1.2
2019/10/22	1	Dec	Unq		1.3
2019/10/24	4	Dec	578-580	4927-4944	4.8
2019/10/24	3	Dec	578	4927	3.6
2019/10/24	1	Dec	Unq		1.2

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