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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 29/10/2019

2019-10-29 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,240  3,170  3,690  4,260  150 -720 4,082 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,350  3,180  3,719  4,260  150 -691 4,055 
Costal Shandong 6,320  3,140  3,681  4,260  150 -729 4,062 
Jiangsu 6,350  3,100  3,656  4,260  150 -755 4,055 
Guangdong 6,370  3,030  3,604  4,260  150 -806 4,050 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,240  3,170  3,690  4,163  150 -623 3,959 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,350  3,180  3,719  4,163  150 -594 3,932 
Costal Shandong 6,320  3,140  3,681  4,163  150 -632 3,939 
Jiangsu 6,350  3,100  3,656  4,163  150 -658 3,932 
Guangdong 6,370  3,030  3,604  4,163  150 -709 3,927 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,240  3,170  3,752  3,344  150  258  2,843 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,350  3,180  3,782  3,344  150  288  2,815 
Costal Shandong 6,320  3,140  3,745  3,344  150  251  2,823 
Jiangsu 6,350  3,100  3,719  3,344  150  225  2,815 
Guangdong 6,370  3,030  3,668  3,344  150  174  2,810 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,240  3,170  3,628  3,226  150  252  2,852 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,350  3,180  3,655  3,226  150  279  2,827 
Costal Shandong 6,320  3,140  3,618  3,226  150  242  2,833 
Jiangsu 6,350  3,100  3,592  3,226  150  216  2,827 
Guangdong 6,370  3,030  3,540  3,226  150  164  2,822 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,240  3,170  3,659  3,470  150  39  3,121 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,350  3,180  3,687  3,470  150  67  3,095 
Costal Shandong 6,320  3,140  3,650  3,470  150  30  3,102 
Jiangsu 6,350  3,100  3,624  3,470  150  4  3,095 
Guangdong 6,370  3,030  3,572  3,470  150  -48  3,091 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,390  3,320  3,678  3,430  160  88  3,210 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,240  3,170  3,534  3,550  160  -176  3,390 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,350  3,180  3,560  3,570  160  -170  3,393 
Boxing, Shandong 6,360  3,190  3,570  3,590  160  -180  3,416 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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