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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 30/10/2019

2019-10-30 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,260  3,170  3,694  4,253  150 -709 4,068 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,350  3,180  3,719  4,253  150 -684 4,046 
Costal Shandong 6,360  3,140  3,689  4,253  150 -714 4,044 
Jiangsu 6,420  3,100  3,669  4,253  150 -734 4,029 
Guangdong 6,490  3,030  3,627  4,253  150 -776 4,013 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Nov. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,260  3,170  3,694  4,155  150 -611 3,944 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,350  3,180  3,719  4,155  150 -586 3,922 
Costal Shandong 6,360  3,140  3,689  4,155  150 -616 3,920 
Jiangsu 6,420  3,100  3,669  4,155  150 -636 3,905 
Guangdong 6,490  3,030  3,627  4,155  150 -678 3,888 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,260  3,170  3,756  3,338  150  268  2,830 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,350  3,180  3,782  3,338  150  294  2,808 
Costal Shandong 6,360  3,140  3,753  3,338  150  265  2,805 
Jiangsu 6,420  3,100  3,733  3,338  150  245  2,790 
Guangdong 6,490  3,030  3,692  3,338  150  204  2,772 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,260  3,170  3,631  3,220  150  261  2,839 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,350  3,180  3,655  3,220  150  285  2,819 
Costal Shandong 6,360  3,140  3,625  3,220  150  255  2,817 
Jiangsu 6,420  3,100  3,605  3,220  150  235  2,803 
Guangdong 6,490  3,030  3,562  3,220  150  192  2,787 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,260  3,170  3,662  3,470  150  42  3,116 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,350  3,180  3,687  3,470  150  67  3,095 
Costal Shandong 6,360  3,140  3,657  3,470  150  37  3,093 
Jiangsu 6,420  3,100  3,637  3,470  150  17  3,079 
Guangdong 6,490  3,030  3,594  3,470  150  -26  3,062 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,410  3,320  3,682  3,430  160  92  3,206 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,260  3,170  3,538  3,550  160  -172  3,386 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,350  3,180  3,560  3,570  160  -170  3,393 
Boxing, Shandong 6,420  3,190  3,579  3,590  160  -171  3,404 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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