Today (Oct. 30), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

 

Imported soybean: Imported soybeans are priced steadily today, among which Canada soybean with 41% protein is unchanged at 3,980 yuan/tonne, and Ukraine soybean at 3,400 yuan/tonne. Imported soybean market gets weighed down by the adequate supply of Chinese soybeans. The market is expecting a meeting between Chinese and the US leaders at the APEC summit in Chile on November 16 and 17, as bilateral trade talks are going well. Before this, the two nations are likely to sign the “phase one” deal. China will purchase more US soybeans, which is bearish to domestic markets. Overall, short-term market for imported soybeans will likely stay stable in the short term. 

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices stay stable with some rises of 0.01-0.05 yuan/kg. There are fewer North Xinjiang cottonseeds, and South Xinjiang cottonseeds have not gone marketing in huge quantities yet. Moreover, the trading volume is also increasing with a rise of operation rate. In consequence, cottonseed market is buoyed by these factors. However, the rises of cottonseed are also limited by increasing supply of Xinjiang cottonseed. Therefore, overall cottonseed price is predicted to rebound with fluctuations. To maintain safety inventory, buyers can make replenishment on the dips.

Summary: US soybean crops were 62% harvested, above the 46% in the previous week, and a report by Reuters said that an interim trade agreement between the United States and China might not be completed in time. US soybean futures thus fell last night, but US soybean oil futures rose as traders were boosted their net long positions. Oil futures also post gains on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today, led by palm oil due to the forecast for an output cut. In the spot markets, soybean oil increases by 50-100 yuan/tonne, and palm oil by 100-120 yuan/tonne. DCE oil futures move away from their highs in afternoon trading, which sways buyers from chasing after further rises, so the settlement prices are slightly lower in the afternoon. Some mills have to suspend production till early November due to soybean shortages, and soybean oil stocks total 1.315 mln tonnes, a decline of 2% from the previous week. And buyers this year are expected to start preparations for the New year’s Day and the Spring Festival from late November. The oil market is thus able to post rises and will remain positive due to the inflation expectation and the sharp cut in US soybean production. But there is handsome margins in soybean crush, and also some margins in soybean oil imports from Argentina. And oil futures pare partial gains after rushing to high levels this morning due to the commercial arbitrage and hedging. Participants still need to prevent fluctuation risks in the upward trend. 

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 6,460-6,540 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, up 50-100 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 6,460-6,470, Rizhao traders 6,520, Zhangjiagang traders 6,520, and Guangzhou traders 6,540). 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 5,170-5,360 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, mostly up 100-120 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 5,350-5,360, up 120; Rizhao 5,340, up 120; Zhangjiagang traders 5,280, up 100; Guangzhou traders 5,170, up 100; and Xiamen 5,250, up 130).

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil rises in price today, of which it settles up 150-180 yuan at 7,500-7,700 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian 7,550, up 150; Guangdong yet offered; and Guangxi 7,550, stable). China’s rapeseed is in tight supply now due to its pending issues with Canada. And stocks of rapeseed and rapeseed oil have declined for a second week in domestic coastal regions. As mills are stalling the sales, rapeseed oil price is buoyed to rebound hugely. But China-US trade talks are going well, and the demand for rapeseed oil is affected by its big price gap with soybean oil. The factors such as inflation inspection, long positions, and a sharp cut in US soybean production estimates bode well for a positive prospect in the oil market, but there may still be frequent fluctuations. Traders still have to keep good control of selling and buying. 

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil prices stay stable with a rise of 50-100 yuan/tonne. Factories basically have no inventory of cottonseed oil. Oils on DCE rise today, and palm oil leads a rally due to the expectation for less production. Spot soybean oil increases by 50-100 yuan/tonne, and spot palm oil increases by 100 yuan/tonne. Hence, cottonseed oil market is buoyed by these factors. In addition, the market is still optimistic about oil outlook due to the inflation expectation and steep cuts in US soybeans production, so cottonseed oil price may keep trending up with fluctuations. Buyers can maintain safety inventory on the dips.