Today (Oct. 31), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: Chilean government announced to cancel the APEC summit in November, and the market had expected leaders from China and the US would sign the “phase one” trade deal at the summit. US soybean futures edged lower last night, and meal futures also post slight losses on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices steadily drop by 10-20 yuan/tonne, and there is still tepid trading for spot contracts but some on forward basis. Specifically, the price settles at 3,020-3,170 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 3,170, Shandong 3,090-3,150, Jiangsu 3,070-3,080, Dongguan 3,020-3,040, and Guangxi 3,040-3,050, Fujian 3,020-3,050). Chinese and U.S. economic and trade teams are making smooth progress on the negotiations, a spokesperson with China’s Ministry of Commerce said, and chief trade negotiators from both sides will hold a phone conversation again on Friday. Chinese mills are scooping up on soybeans now due to good crush margins on the DCE, which places a curb on soybean meal prices. However, the USDA has sharply trimmed its estimates for stocks of US soybeans. And the inflation expectation caused by surging pig prices is forcing up the bottom of futures of agricultural product. And mills now have low soybean meal stocks. Therefore, soybean meal price will have limited space for downside and will remain strong, unless there is pressure from stocks. DCE futures are backing and filling, so buyers with stocks can wait at the moment. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal declines in price today, of which it settles down 10-30 yuan/tonne at 2,280-2,380 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,320, down 10; Guangdong 2,380, down 20; Fujian not offered). Chinese oil plants are active in purchasing soybean due to the good gross margin of futures. In addition, U.S. soybean harvest is speeding up, and rapeseed meal may come under pressure from import of U.S. soybeans and mixed meals. And aquaculture is gradually fading. Furthermore, there is not much improvement in the poor demand for rapeseed meal due to the ASF. Thus, rapeseed meal price is depressed by these factors. However, rapeseed supply is tightening under the pending issues between China and Canada, and the inventory of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is trending down, so the declines of short-term price may be limited. Therefore, the overall market outlook of rapeseed meal may still stay strong with fluctuations. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make replenishment.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal price is stable today. It is9,100-9,500 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content, 9,400-9,800 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content,9,900-10,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 10,100-10,600 yuan/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Farmers have ended aquaculture in North China as the weather gets cool, which means they will have low demand for fishmeal in the short run. Meanwhile, hog feed consumption is also slow due to the influence of the African swine fever. The demand side will continue to subdue the market. But with few imports arriving at ports, total stocks at ports are decreasing under a normal consumption pace. Most traders now have tight supplies and are stalling on the sales, so fishmeal prices keep firm at present. The overall market is predicted to steady with a strengthening trend in the near term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 96,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 31,000 tonnes, Shanghai 52,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 8,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: it is 1,110 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content and 1,340 USD/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard SD with 65% protein content is 1,100 USD/tonne, and super SD with 68% protein content at 1,330 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal price stays stable with some fluctuations of 50-80 yuan/tonne today. The sow stock begins to rebound from the bottom. And the production of pig feed in September increased by 10% from the previous month, which could improve the demand. Therefore, cottonseed meal market is supported. But new order is in light trading, and the demand is affected by narrow price gap between soybean meal and cottonseed meal. In addition, meals on DCE today drop slightly, and spot soybean meal stays stable with a rise of 10-20 yuan/tonne. Therefore, cottonseed meal market is dragged down by all these factors, and short-term cottonseed meal may move sideways with fluctuations. In addition, USDA slashed the inventory of U.S. soybeans, and the bottom of agricultural futures was raised by inflation expectations due to a surge in pig prices. Overall, meals market outlook still stays strong, and buyers can make proper replenishment on the dips but not chase up prices too high. One more thing, China and U.S. are making smooth progress on the negotiations, and both chief trade negotiators will hold a phone conversation again this Friday, according to the Ministry of Commerce (MOC). Buyers can keep eyes on the latest development.