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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 1/11/2019

2019-11-01 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,320  3,140  3,681  4,254  150 -723 4,055 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,450  3,150  3,714  4,254  150 -690 4,023 
Costal Shandong 6,560  3,120  3,711  4,254  150 -693 3,997 
Jiangsu 6,500  3,080  3,668  4,254  150 -736 4,011 
Guangdong 6,570  3,020  3,634  4,254  150 -770 3,995 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Nov. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,320  3,140  3,681  4,139  150 -608 3,909 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,450  3,150  3,714  4,139  150 -575 3,878 
Costal Shandong 6,560  3,120  3,711  4,139  150 -578 3,851 
Jiangsu 6,500  3,080  3,668  4,139  150 -621 3,866 
Guangdong 6,570  3,020  3,634  4,139  150 -655 3,849 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,320  3,140  3,745  3,325  150  270  2,799 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,450  3,150  3,779  3,325  150  304  2,766 
Costal Shandong 6,560  3,120  3,777  3,325  150  302  2,738 
Jiangsu 6,500  3,080  3,733  3,325  150  258  2,753 
Guangdong 6,570  3,020  3,700  3,325  150  225  2,735 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,320  3,140  3,618  3,287  150  181  2,911 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,450  3,150  3,650  3,287  150  213  2,881 
Costal Shandong 6,560  3,120  3,646  3,287  150  209  2,856 
Jiangsu 6,500  3,080  3,603  3,287  150  166  2,870 
Guangdong 6,570  3,020  3,568  3,287  150  131  2,854 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,320  3,140  3,650  3,470  150  30  3,102 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,450  3,150  3,682  3,470  150  62  3,072 
Costal Shandong 6,560  3,120  3,678  3,470  150  58  3,046 
Jiangsu 6,500  3,080  3,636  3,470  150  16  3,060 
Guangdong 6,570  3,020  3,601  3,470  150  -19  3,044 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,470  3,290  3,667  3,430  160  77  3,194 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,320  3,140  3,523  3,550  160  -187  3,374 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,450  3,150  3,552  3,570  160  -178  3,373 
Boxing, Shandong 6,560  3,160  3,578  3,590  160  -172  3,376 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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