Today (Nov. 1), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US soybeans ended slightly higher last night due to strong export sales and shipment data, but meal futures further drop on the Dalian Commodity Exchange as traders take the arbitrage in buying oils. Spot soybean meal prices decline by 10-30 yuan/tonne, and there is still tepid trading for spot contracts but some on forward basis. Specifically, the price settles at 3,000-3,150 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 3,150, Shandong 3,090-3,150, Jiangsu 3,040-3,060, Dongguan 2,980-3,000, and Guangxi 3,020-3,050, Fujian 3,020-3,030). President Donald Trump said a new location for signing the “phase one” U.S.-China trade deal will be announced soon. Chinese importers are scooping up on soybeans due to good crush margins on the DCE, and the market has got rid of the influence of the African swine fever, so soybean meal prices are falling to adjust. But mills have lower soybean meal stocks now and some are still setting limited quantity for delivery. After huge rises in the oil market, the imports of Argentine crude soybean oil are profitable. And once the oils come stable from rises, the meal market will be buoyed as traders end their arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals. The bottom of meal market in China has been lifted after the USDA sharply cut its estimates for US soybean production and stocks. Overall, soybean meal market is predicted to have little downside space and will probably maintain its strengthening trend. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal declines in price today, of which it settles down 30-50 yuan/tonne at 2,250-2,350 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,280, down 40; Guangdong 2,350, down 50; Fujian 2,260). U.S.-China trade negotiations are going well. And Trump announced that he would choose a new site for the signing of a “Phase One” trade deal, after Chile cancelled a planned APEC summit. In addition, rapeseed meal prices fall back as oil mills continue to purchase imported soybeans due to huge crush margins; African swine fever is still not over; aquaculture is gradually fading. However, under the tensions between China and Canada, rapeseed supply is predicted to get tightened as most factories have no boatload of rapeseed in the late period. Therefore, the declines of short-term rapeseed meal prices are limited, and overall market outlook still stays strong with fluctuations. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make proper replenishment.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal price is stable today. It is 9,100-9,500 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content, 9,400-9,800 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 9,900-10,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 10,100-10,600 yuan/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Farmers have ended aquaculture in North China as the weather gets cool, which means they will have low demand for fishmeal in the short run. Meanwhile, hog feed consumption is also slow due to the influence of the African swine fever. The demand side will continue to subdue the market. But with few imports arriving at ports, total stocks at ports are decreasing under a normal consumption pace. Most traders now have tight supplies and are stalling on the sales, so fishmeal prices keep firm at present. The overall market is predicted to steady with a strengthening trend in the near term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 96,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 31,000 tonnes, Shanghai 52,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 8,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: it is 1,110 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content and 1,340 USD/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard SD with 65% protein content is 1,100 USD/tonne, and super SD with 68% protein content at 1,330 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal price stays stable with individual declines of 50 yuan/tonne today. As the sow stock began to rebound from the bottom, the production of pig feed in September increased by 10% from the previous month. Thus, the demand may be improved. And oil plants in Xiajin halt the operation due to environmental protection today. All these factors support cottonseed meal market. But the demand is also affected by narrowed price gap between soybean meal and cottonseed meal. Besides, meals on DCE today drop further due to an arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals, and spot soybean meal mostly down by 10-30 yuan/tonne. Therefore, cottonseed meal market is weighed down by these factors, and short-term cottonseed meal may move sideways with fluctuations. In addition, USDA slashes the inventory of U.S. soybeans, and the bottom of agricultural futures is raised by inflation expectations due to a surge in pig prices. Overall, meals market outlook still stays strong. Meals futures keep falling, so buyers can stay on the sideline and make proper replenishment when prices wane.