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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 4/11/2019

2019-11-04 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,390  3,140  3,695  4,267  150 -722 4,054 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,480  3,150  3,720  4,267  150 -697 4,033 
Costal Shandong 6,560  3,120  3,711  4,267  150 -706 4,013 
Jiangsu 6,530  3,080  3,674  4,267  150 -743 4,021 
Guangdong 6,620  3,010  3,636  4,267  150 -781 3,999 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Nov. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,390  3,140  3,695  4,163  150 -618 3,923 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,480  3,150  3,720  4,163  150 -593 3,901 
Costal Shandong 6,560  3,120  3,711  4,163  150 -602 3,882 
Jiangsu 6,530  3,080  3,674  4,163  150 -639 3,889 
Guangdong 6,620  3,010  3,636  4,163  150 -677 3,867 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,390  3,140  3,759  3,346  150  263  2,808 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,480  3,150  3,785  3,346  150  289  2,785 
Costal Shandong 6,560  3,120  3,777  3,346  150  281  2,765 
Jiangsu 6,530  3,080  3,739  3,346  150  243  2,772 
Guangdong 6,620  3,010  3,702  3,346  150  206  2,749 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,390  3,140  3,631  3,294  150  187  2,904 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,480  3,150  3,655  3,294  150  211  2,883 
Costal Shandong 6,560  3,120  3,646  3,294  150  202  2,865 
Jiangsu 6,530  3,080  3,609  3,294  150  165  2,872 
Guangdong 6,620  3,010  3,570  3,294  150  126  2,851 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,390  3,140  3,663  3,470  150  43  3,086 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,480  3,150  3,687  3,470  150  67  3,065 
Costal Shandong 6,560  3,120  3,678  3,470  150  58  3,046 
Jiangsu 6,530  3,080  3,641  3,470  150  21  3,053 
Guangdong 6,620  3,010  3,603  3,470  150  -17  3,032 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,540  3,290  3,678  3,430  160  88  3,180 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,390  3,140  3,534  3,550  160  -176  3,360 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,480  3,150  3,557  3,570  160  -173  3,367 
Boxing, Shandong 6,520  3,160  3,571  3,590  160  -179  3,384 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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