According to Cofeed, on the week as of November 1st, details of soybean oil inventories and outstanding contracts are as follows:

 

This week (Oct. 26th-Nov. 1), soybean crush declines at a higher-than-expected pace due to supply shortages, and as some mills have to limit or suspend production due to environmental protection in Qingdao and Rizhao, Shandong. Soybean crush at domestic mills totals 1,554,450 tonnes (meal 1,228,015 tonnes and oil 295,345 tonnes), down 195,500 tonnes, or 11.1%, from 1,749,950 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, the operation rate (capacity utilization) is 42.88%, down 5.39 percentage points from 48.27% in the previous week. Soybean crush is predicted to increase slightly to around 1.66 mln tonnes next week and to 1.80 mln tonnes that following week. Some soybean imports now are for state reserves, instead of for mills, so some mills may have to halt production due to a lack of soybeans in early November. 

 

Soybean oil stocks decline significantly this week due to lower soybean crush with strong trading after the National Day holiday. In the week as of Nov. 1st, China’s commercial inventory has totaled 1,256,550 tonnes, down 57,900 tonnes by 4.4% from 1,314,450 tonnes last week, down 93,250 tonnes by 6.91% from 1,349,800 tonnes last month, and down 593,450 tonnes by 32.08% from 1,850,000 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,365,200 tonnes. Mills now have a backlog of contracts in November and December, so soybean oil stocks will probably drop further for some time in the future. 

 

Fig.: China’s Soybean Oil Stocks in Recent Years