Today (Nov. 4), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: Chief leaders for trade negotiations from China and the United States had a phone conversation last Friday and reached a consensus in principle, and U.S. Secretary of Commerce said that the initial “phase one” trade pact with China was likely to be signed around mid-November. US soybean futures slightly rose on China’s purchase of two boatloads. And meal futures also edge higher on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices increase by 10-20 yuan/tonne to attract some low-level purchases. Specifically, the price settles at 3,000-3,170 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 3,170, Shandong 3,090-3,140, Jiangsu 3,030-3,080, Dongguan 3,000-3,010, and Guangxi 3,020-3,050, Fujian 3,000-3,030). US soybean production is forecast to face a cut of over 24%. Due to the inflation expectation brought by the surging hog prices, Chinese investors go bargain hunting in the agricultural products market, which has raised the bottom of meal prices. And domestic soybean crush fell by 11% for soybean shortages last week. Mills now are out of pressure and are propping up meal prices. But China and the US are making smooth progress in negotiations. And Chinese importers are buying up on soybeans due to good crush margins on the DCE, which will keep meal price rises in check. Soybean meal prices are predicted to keep choppy, range-bound in the short term, and maintain a strengthening trend later. Buyers are suggested to make appropriate replenishment on the dips and remain cautious in chasing after excessively high prices. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal stays stable with slight rises in price today, of which it settles up 10 yuan/tonne at 2,250-2,350 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,260; Guangdong 2,350, stable; Fujian 2,260). The rapeseed is still in tight supply under pending issues between China and Canada, and rapeseed crush has decreased. Last Friday, rapeseed meal inventory decreased by 38% from the previous week to 12,000 tonnes in coastal areas. And oil plants prop up prices. However, the trade war is easing, and oil mills continue to purchase imported soybeans due to huge crush margins. Moreover, the overall demand for meals is poor under the lingering African swine fever. Therefore, the rises of rapeseed meal price are still curbed by these factors, and short-term prices mainly fluctuate to stay strong. Buyers are suggested to make proper replenishment on the dips and not to chase up prices too high.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal price goes stable today. It is 9,100-9,500 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content, 9,400-9,800 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 9,900-10,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 10,100-10,600 yuan/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Farmers have ended aquaculture in North China as the weather gets cool, which means they will have low demand for fishmeal in the short run. Meanwhile, hog feed consumption is also slow due to the influence of the African swine fever. The demand side will continue to subdue the market. But with few imports arriving at ports, total stocks at ports are decreasing under a normal consumption pace. Most traders now have tight supplies and are stalling on the sales, so fishmeal prices keep firm at present. The overall market is predicted to steady with a strengthening trend in the near term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 95,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 31,000 tonnes, Shanghai 51,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 8,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: it is quoted higher by 70 USD at 1,180 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content and higher by 40 USD at 1,380 USD/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard SD with 65% protein content is 1,100 USD/tonne, and super SD with 68% protein content at 1,330 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal price stays stable with some fluctuations of 20-60 yuan/tonne today. As the sow stock began to rebound from the bottom, the production of pig feed in September increased by 10% from the previous month. Thus, the demand may be improved. Besides, meals on DCE today rise slightly, and soybean meal rises by 10-20 yuan/tonne. All these factors support cottonseed meal market. But cottonseed meal market is also weighed down by weaker demand affected by narrow price gap between soybean meal and cottonseed meal. Therefore, short-term cottonseed meal prices may fluctuate in a narrow range, but meals market outlook still stays strong overall. Buyers can make proper replenishment on the dips and remain cautious in chasing up prices. In addition, lead trade negotiators from both U.S. and China made a phone call and reached “consensus on principles” last Friday. The “Phase One” trade pact is likely to be signed around mid-November, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said. And buyers can keep close eye on the latest progress in U.S.-China trade talks.