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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 5/11/2019

2019-11-05 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,560  3,130  3,719  4,257  150 -688 4,001 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,650  3,150  3,752  4,257  150 -655 3,979 
Costal Shandong 6,620  3,160  3,754  4,257  150 -653 3,986 
Jiangsu 6,640  3,080  3,695  4,257  150 -712 3,982 
Guangdong 6,720  3,000  3,647  4,257  150 -760 3,962 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Nov. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,560  3,130  3,719  4,168  150 -599 3,888 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,650  3,150  3,752  4,168  150 -566 3,866 
Costal Shandong 6,620  3,160  3,754  4,168  150 -564 3,874 
Jiangsu 6,640  3,080  3,695  4,168  150 -623 3,869 
Guangdong 6,720  3,000  3,647  4,168  150 -671 3,850 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,560  3,130  3,785  3,345  150  290  2,763 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,650  3,150  3,819  3,345  150  324  2,741 
Costal Shandong 6,620  3,160  3,820  3,345  150  325  2,748 
Jiangsu 6,640  3,080  3,761  3,345  150  266  2,743 
Guangdong 6,720  3,000  3,714  3,345  150  219  2,723 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,560  3,130  3,654  3,283  150  221  2,851 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,650  3,150  3,686  3,283  150  253  2,830 
Costal Shandong 6,620  3,160  3,688  3,283  150  255  2,837 
Jiangsu 6,640  3,080  3,628  3,283  150  195  2,833 
Guangdong 6,720  3,000  3,580  3,283  150  147  2,814 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,560  3,130  3,686  3,470  150  66  3,046 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,650  3,150  3,719  3,470  150  99  3,025 
Costal Shandong 6,620  3,160  3,721  3,470  150  101  3,032 
Jiangsu 6,640  3,080  3,662  3,470  150  42  3,027 
Guangdong 6,720  3,000  3,613  3,470  150  -7  3,009 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,710  3,280  3,698  3,430  160  108  3,146 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,560  3,130  3,554  3,550  160  -156  3,326 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,650  3,150  3,584  3,570  160  -146  3,333 
Boxing, Shandong 6,620  3,160  3,587  3,590  160  -163  3,364 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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