Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 6/11/2019

2019-11-06 www.cofeed.com

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,540	3,140	3,723	4,224	150	-651	3,964
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,550	3,150	3,733	4,224	150	-641	3,961
Costal Shandong	6,570	3,140	3,729	4,224	150	-645	3,957
Jiangsu	6,580	3,070	3,676	4,224	150	-699	3,954
Guangdong	6,650	2,950	3,594	4,224	150	-780	3,937

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Nov. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,540	3,140	3,723	4,135	150	-562	3,851
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,550	3,150	3,733	4,135	150	-552	3,849
Costal Shandong	6,570	3,140	3,729	4,135	150	-556	3,844
Jiangsu	6,580	3,070	3,676	4,135	150	-610	3,842
Guangdong	6,650	2,950	3,594	4,135	150	-691	3,825

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,540	3,140	3,789	3,319	150	320	2,735
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,550	3,150	3,799	3,319	150	330	2,733
Costal Shandong	6,570	3,140	3,795	3,319	150	326	2,728
Jiangsu	6,580	3,070	3,741	3,319	150	272	2,725
Guangdong	6,650	2,950	3,661	3,319	150	192	2,708

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,540	3,140	3,658	3,258	150	250	2,824
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,550	3,150	3,668	3,258	150	260	2,822
Costal Shandong	6,570	3,140	3,663	3,258	150	255	2,817
Jiangsu	6,580	3,070	3,610	3,258	150	202	2,815
Guangdong	6,650	2,950	3,528	3,258	150	120	2,799

Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,540	3,140	3,691	3,470	150	71	3,051
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,550	3,150	3,700	3,470	150	80	3,048
Costal Shandong	6,570	3,140	3,696	3,470	150	76	3,044
Jiangsu	6,580	3,070	3,643	3,470	150	23	3,041
Guangdong	6,650	2,950	3,561	3,470	150	-59	3,025

Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang	6,690	3,290	3,702	3,430	160	112	3,150
Dalian, Liaoning	6,540	3,140	3,558	3,550	160	-152	3,330
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,550	3,150	3,568	3,570	160	-162	3,353
Boxing, Shandong	6,570	3,140	3,563	3,590	160	-187	3,374
Remarks: 1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory. 2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%; Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%. 3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price. 4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

Print Close