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Daily Review on Meal Market in China--6/11/2019

2019-11-06 www.cofeed.com
Today (Nov. 6), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US soybean futures ended lower last night as farmers harvested 75% of their crops at an accelerating pace thanks to clear weather in the Midwest. Meal futures also see losses after opening lower on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices drop 20-40 yuan/tonne in tepid trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2,950-3,130 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 3,130, Shandong 3,060-3,110, Jiangsu 3,010-3,040, Dongguan 2,950-2,980, and Guangxi 2,980-3,000, Fujian 2,970-2,990). Mills are importing soybeans and booking profits through meal and oil sales on the DCE. Besides, hog prices have begun to fall recently. The time for China and the United States to sign their phase one deal is expected to draw near, and the Chinese yuan has soared past 7, which will reduced the import cost. These are weighing down soybean meal prices. But mills are keeping lower soybean crush due to supply shortages. Soybean meal stocks thus fell by 13.5% weekly to a multi-year low of 480,000 tonnes in coastal regions. Some mills in North China now are still setting limited delivery quantities, and some Shandong factories are stuck with trucks at their gates. It is predicted that soybean meal prices will have limited space for declines and may maintain the strengthening trend later. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to replenish appropriately. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal declines in price today, of which it settles at 2,250-2,350 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,220, down 40; Guangdong 2,220, down 40; Fujian not offered). The U.S.-China trade negotiations are in good shape, and oil mills keep purchasing imported soybeans. Meanwhile, there is not much improvement in demand as the impact of ASF is not over; aquaculture is gradually fading. Therefore, rapeseed meal prices are dragged down to fall back. However, the declines of short-term rapeseed meal price are limited by tight rapeseed supply under the tensions between China and Canada, coupled with low inventory of soybean meal and rapeseed meal. Besides, meals may wanes slightly due to steep cuts in U.S. soybeans and inflation expectations. After that, the market outlook still might be in an upward trend. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make replenishment.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal price goes stable today. It is 9,100-9,500 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content, 9,400-9,800 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 9,900-10,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 10,100-10,600 yuan/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. The investigation on fish resources is still underway in the centre-north regions of Peru, and fishmeal merchants are also holding meetings in Shanghai at present. The Peruvian government has not released the fishing quotas, so traders now are predicting it and propping up prices, and some traders with tight supplies are stalling on the sales. But aquaculture in North China has completed as the weather gets cool, and the African swine fever is still spreading, so there is not much improvement in the demand side. The overall market is predicted to keep steady in the near term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 94,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 31,000 tonnes, Shanghai 49,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 8,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: it is quoted steadily at 1,180 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content and 1,380 USD/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard SD with 65% protein content is 1,100 USD/tonne, and super SD with 68% protein content at 1,330 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal price stays stable with some fluctuations of 10-50 yuan/tonne today. As the sow stock began to rebound from the bottom, the demand for meals may be improved. And cottonseed price is high. Thus, cottonseed meal market is supported. But the demand is also affected by narrow price gap between soybean meal and cottonseed meal. Additionally, meals on DCE today fall back with low opens, and spot soybean meal down by 20-40 yuan/tonne. Therefore, cottonseed meal market is weighed down by these factors, and short-term cottonseed meal prices may fluctuate in a narrow range, but meals market outlook still stays strong overall. Buyers can keep safety inventory on the dips and remain cautious in chasing up prices.

(USD $1=CNY 7.01)