Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 7/11/2019

2019-11-07 www.cofeed.com

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,550	3,150	3,733	4,213	150	-630	3,947
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,560	3,150	3,735	4,213	150	-628	3,945
Costal Shandong	6,570	3,140	3,729	4,213	150	-634	3,943
Jiangsu	6,550	3,030	3,638	4,213	150	-725	3,947
Guangdong	6,650	2,970	3,610	4,213	150	-753	3,923

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Nov. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,550	3,150	3,733	4,131	150	-548	3,844
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,560	3,150	3,735	4,131	150	-546	3,841
Costal Shandong	6,570	3,140	3,729	4,131	150	-552	3,839
Jiangsu	6,550	3,030	3,638	4,131	150	-643	3,844
Guangdong	6,650	2,970	3,610	4,131	150	-671	3,820

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,550	3,150	3,799	3,305	150	344	2,715
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,560	3,150	3,801	3,305	150	346	2,713
Costal Shandong	6,570	3,140	3,795	3,305	150	340	2,710
Jiangsu	6,550	3,030	3,704	3,305	150	249	2,715
Guangdong	6,650	2,970	3,676	3,305	150	221	2,690

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,550	3,150	3,668	3,263	150	255	2,828
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,560	3,150	3,669	3,263	150	256	2,826
Costal Shandong	6,570	3,140	3,663	3,263	150	250	2,823
Jiangsu	6,550	3,030	3,573	3,263	150	160	2,828
Guangdong	6,650	2,970	3,543	3,263	150	130	2,805

Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,550	3,150	3,700	3,470	150	80	3,048
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,560	3,150	3,702	3,470	150	82	3,046
Costal Shandong	6,570	3,140	3,696	3,470	150	76	3,044
Jiangsu	6,550	3,030	3,605	3,470	150	-15	3,048
Guangdong	6,650	2,970	3,577	3,470	150	-43	3,025

Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang	6,700	3,290	3,704	3,430	160	114	3,148
Dalian, Liaoning	6,550	3,150	3,568	3,550	160	-142	3,328
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,560	3,150	3,570	3,570	160	-160	3,351
Boxing, Shandong	6,650	3,120	3,560	3,590	160	-190	3,358
Remarks: 1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory. 2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%; Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%. 3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price. 4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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