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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 7/11/2019

2019-11-07 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,550  3,150  3,733  4,213  150 -630 3,947 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,560  3,150  3,735  4,213  150 -628 3,945 
Costal Shandong 6,570  3,140  3,729  4,213  150 -634 3,943 
Jiangsu 6,550  3,030  3,638  4,213  150 -725 3,947 
Guangdong 6,650  2,970  3,610  4,213  150 -753 3,923 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Nov. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,550  3,150  3,733  4,131  150 -548 3,844 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,560  3,150  3,735  4,131  150 -546 3,841 
Costal Shandong 6,570  3,140  3,729  4,131  150 -552 3,839 
Jiangsu 6,550  3,030  3,638  4,131  150 -643 3,844 
Guangdong 6,650  2,970  3,610  4,131  150 -671 3,820 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,550  3,150  3,799  3,305  150  344  2,715 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,560  3,150  3,801  3,305  150  346  2,713 
Costal Shandong 6,570  3,140  3,795  3,305  150  340  2,710 
Jiangsu 6,550  3,030  3,704  3,305  150  249  2,715 
Guangdong 6,650  2,970  3,676  3,305  150  221  2,690 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,550  3,150  3,668  3,263  150  255  2,828 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,560  3,150  3,669  3,263  150  256  2,826 
Costal Shandong 6,570  3,140  3,663  3,263  150  250  2,823 
Jiangsu 6,550  3,030  3,573  3,263  150  160  2,828 
Guangdong 6,650  2,970  3,543  3,263  150  130  2,805 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,550  3,150  3,700  3,470  150  80  3,048 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,560  3,150  3,702  3,470  150  82  3,046 
Costal Shandong 6,570  3,140  3,696  3,470  150  76  3,044 
Jiangsu 6,550  3,030  3,605  3,470  150  -15  3,048 
Guangdong 6,650  2,970  3,577  3,470  150  -43  3,025 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,700  3,290  3,704  3,430  160  114  3,148 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,550  3,150  3,568  3,550  160  -142  3,328 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,560  3,150  3,570  3,570  160  -160  3,351 
Boxing, Shandong 6,650  3,120  3,560  3,590  160  -190  3,358 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.