Today (Nov. 7), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

 

Imported soybean: Imported soybeans keep steady today, among which Kazakhstan soybean is unchanged at 4,160 yuan/tonne, and Ukraine soybean at 3,500 yuan/tonne. Domestic soybeans are in adequate supplies, and China may increase its soybean imports later, which is negative to domestic market. But China and the United States may not sign phase one deal until December, according to Reuters. And traders now see steady demand in the market. In a hybrid of a bull and a bear, short-term market for imported soybeans will likely stay stable in the short term.  

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices stay stable with some fluctuations of 0.01-0.03 yuan/kg. There is a decrease in cottonseed production than a year earlier, so cotton ginning mills have a reluctant sale mentality, which supports the cottonseed market. But cottonseed prices are high and irregular in a thick speculation atmosphere in recent days, so oil mills hold a wait-and-see attitude. Thus, the price of cottonseed in Xinjiang falls back slightly due to the limited trade volume but still goes up with fluctuations overall. Buyers can make proper replenishment upon low and stable prices.

Oils: 

Summary: US soybean futures ended lower last night on favorable weather in the production regions, and the uncertain trade deal after Reuters reported China and the US may not sign the phase one trade deal until December possibly in Europe and Asia. Oil futures rose in early trading on the Dalian Commodity Exchange as investors went long in soybean oil and short in soybean meal, but then palm oil fluctuates to decline and soybean oil also follows to narrow gains. In the spot market, soybean oil prices are mostly stable with some rises of 20-40 yuan/tonne, and palm oil fluctuates by 20-50 yuan/tonne. Due to the correction on the DCE, buyers are just waiting and making few purchases. The DCE import margins for soybean crush have risen to a high level of 239-288 yuan/tonne due to rising Chinese yuan, so importers are buying up on soybeans. And the upward space is also influenced by the profit taking. But mills now have lots of contracts to fulfill, in addition to lower soybean crush, while buyers will stock up oils for festivals earlier as the Spring Festival will come earlier this year, so soybean oil stocks keep declining. In addition, there is a cut in US soybean production and an inflation expectation in China. Mills now are propping up prices. The oil market is predicted to follow futures to fluctuate in the short term and remain bullish in the middle to long run. The DCE futures are now in corrections, so buyers can stay on the sidelines at the moment. 

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 6,600-6,690 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, a partial rise of 20-40 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 6,600-6,610, Rizhao traders 6,650, Zhangjiagang traders 6,690, and Guangzhou traders 6,630). 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 5,340-5,540 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, trading mixed by 10-50 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders5,530-5,540, flat; Rizhaotraders5,530, down 40; Zhangjiagang traders 5,450, down 50; Guangzhou traders 5,340, down 30; and Xiamen5,520, down 10).

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil declines in price today, of which it settles down 20-30 yuan at 7520-7620 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian 7,520, down 30; Guangdong yet offered; and Guangxi 7,950). The demand for rapeseed oil is influenced by its huge price gap with soybean oil. And after China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that China will resume beef and pork imports from Canada, the market is concerned that imports of rapeseed and rapeseed oil may gradually be opened again. Rapeseed oil market is thus weighed down. But even if the imports are resumed, it will take some steps from shipping to China, so rapeseed supply is still tightening in the next few months. Because of lower crush, stocks of rapeseed and rapeseed oil have declined for three straight weeks. Therefore, rapeseed oil prices will have limited space for declines and will probably fluctuate at the high level. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make proper replenishment. 

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil price stays stable with some rises of 50-100 yuan/tonne and individual declines of 100 yuan/tonne today. Factories have no stock of cottonseed oil, and price of cottonseed is high. Besides, oils on DCE rise again in early trade due to an arbitrage of buying soybean oil and selling soybean meal. Spot soybean oil stays stable mostly with some rises of 20-40 yuan/tonne. Thus, cottonseed oil market is supported by these factors, but the price in individual regions declines due to light trading of new order. Additionally, it is about to enter a peak season for stocking up before the festival, so cottonseed oil market outlook is expected to maintain an upward trend with fluctuations. Buyers can maintain safety inventory on the dips. But Reuters reports that the signing of “Phase One” trade deal between China and U.S. could be delayed to December, so buyers should always concern about the development of negotiations.