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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 8/11/2019

2019-11-08 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,580  3,160  3,747  4,259  150 -662 3,998 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,560  3,140  3,727  4,259  150 -682 4,003 
Costal Shandong 6,600  3,120  3,719  4,259  150 -690 3,994 
Jiangsu 6,560  3,010  3,624  4,259  150 -785 4,003 
Guangdong 6,630  2,980  3,614  4,259  150 -795 3,986 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Nov. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,580  3,160  3,747  4,134  150 -537 3,840 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,560  3,140  3,727  4,134  150 -557 3,845 
Costal Shandong 6,600  3,120  3,719  4,134  150 -565 3,835 
Jiangsu 6,560  3,010  3,624  4,134  150 -660 3,845 
Guangdong 6,630  2,980  3,614  4,134  150 -670 3,828 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,580  3,160  3,812  3,327  150  335  2,735 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,560  3,140  3,793  3,327  150  316  2,741 
Costal Shandong 6,600  3,120  3,785  3,327  150  308  2,730 
Jiangsu 6,560  3,010  3,690  3,327  150  213  2,741 
Guangdong 6,630  2,980  3,680  3,327  150  203  2,723 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,580  3,160  3,681  3,252  150  279  2,807 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,560  3,140  3,661  3,252  150  259  2,812 
Costal Shandong 6,600  3,120  3,653  3,252  150  251  2,803 
Jiangsu 6,560  3,010  3,559  3,252  150  157  2,812 
Guangdong 6,630  2,980  3,548  3,252  150  146  2,796 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,580  3,160  3,714  3,470  150  94  3,041 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,560  3,140  3,694  3,470  150  74  3,046 
Costal Shandong 6,600  3,120  3,686  3,470  150  66  3,037 
Jiangsu 6,560  3,010  3,592  3,470  150  -29  3,046 
Guangdong 6,630  2,980  3,581  3,470  150  -39  3,030 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,730  3,310  3,725  3,430  160  135  3,142 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,580  3,160  3,581  3,550  160  -129  3,322 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,560  3,140  3,562  3,570  160  -168  3,351 
Boxing, Shandong 6,650  3,130  3,568  3,590  160  -182  3,358 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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