Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 8/11/2019

2019-11-08 www.cofeed.com

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,580	3,160	3,747	4,259	150	-662	3,998
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,560	3,140	3,727	4,259	150	-682	4,003
Costal Shandong	6,600	3,120	3,719	4,259	150	-690	3,994
Jiangsu	6,560	3,010	3,624	4,259	150	-785	4,003
Guangdong	6,630	2,980	3,614	4,259	150	-795	3,986

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Nov. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,580	3,160	3,747	4,134	150	-537	3,840
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,560	3,140	3,727	4,134	150	-557	3,845
Costal Shandong	6,600	3,120	3,719	4,134	150	-565	3,835
Jiangsu	6,560	3,010	3,624	4,134	150	-660	3,845
Guangdong	6,630	2,980	3,614	4,134	150	-670	3,828

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,580	3,160	3,812	3,327	150	335	2,735
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,560	3,140	3,793	3,327	150	316	2,741
Costal Shandong	6,600	3,120	3,785	3,327	150	308	2,730
Jiangsu	6,560	3,010	3,690	3,327	150	213	2,741
Guangdong	6,630	2,980	3,680	3,327	150	203	2,723

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,580	3,160	3,681	3,252	150	279	2,807
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,560	3,140	3,661	3,252	150	259	2,812
Costal Shandong	6,600	3,120	3,653	3,252	150	251	2,803
Jiangsu	6,560	3,010	3,559	3,252	150	157	2,812
Guangdong	6,630	2,980	3,548	3,252	150	146	2,796

Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,580	3,160	3,714	3,470	150	94	3,041
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,560	3,140	3,694	3,470	150	74	3,046
Costal Shandong	6,600	3,120	3,686	3,470	150	66	3,037
Jiangsu	6,560	3,010	3,592	3,470	150	-29	3,046
Guangdong	6,630	2,980	3,581	3,470	150	-39	3,030

Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang	6,730	3,310	3,725	3,430	160	135	3,142
Dalian, Liaoning	6,580	3,160	3,581	3,550	160	-129	3,322
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,560	3,140	3,562	3,570	160	-168	3,351
Boxing, Shandong	6,650	3,130	3,568	3,590	160	-182	3,358
Remarks: 1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory. 2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%; Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%. 3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price. 4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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