According to Cofeed, on the week as of November 8th, details of soybean oil inventories and outstanding contracts are as follows:

 

Soybean crush continues to be slightly lower this week (Nov. 2-8) due to soybean shortages. The crush at domestic mills totals 1547450 tonnes (meal 1222485 tonnes and oil 294015 tonnes), down 7000 tonnes, or 0.45%, from 1554450 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, the operation rate (capacity utilization) is 42.68%, down 0.2 percentage points from 42.88% in the previous week. Soybean crush is predicted to increase to around 1.68 mln tonnes next week and to 1.77 mln tonnes that following week. 

 

Soybean oil stocks continue to decline significantly this week due to lower soybean crush with strong demand and quick delivery. In the week as of Nov. 8th, China’s commercial inventory has totaled 1,184,350 tonnes, down 72,200 tonnes by 5.75% from 1,256,550 tonnes last week, down 167,650 tonnes by 12.4% from 1,352,000 tonnes last month, and down 655,650 tonnes by 35.63% from 1,840,000 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,334,500 tonnes. Mills now have a backlog of contracts in November and December, so soybean oil stocks will probably drop further for some time in the future. 

 

Fig.: China’s Soybean Oil Stocks in Recent Years