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Daily Review on Meal Market in China--11/11/2019

2019-11-11 www.cofeed.com
Today (Nov. 11), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US soybean ended lower last Friday on higher-than-expected soybean production and stocks in the USDA report. Meal futures fall after lower opens on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices drop by 20-30 yuan/tonne in thin trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2,930-3,120 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 3,120, Shandong 3,060-3,100, Jiangsu 2,980-3,020, Dongguan 2,930-2,960, and Guangxi 2,960-2,980, Fujian 2,950-2,980). The overall oil market has a strong performance so that traders keep on buying oils. The price of hog has dropped 6.1% from last Friday to 36.97 yuan/kg today. The subdued sentiment in the market keeps a curb on the soybean meal prices. But soybean crush remains low due to tight supply of commercial soybean nationwide, so soybean meal stocks may continue declining. In addition, the demand for soybean meal is expected to rises with the increasing amount of hog and poultry. Besides, Trump said last Friday that he has not agreed to roll back tariffs on Chinese goods, which has triggered the concern about a trade deal between China and the United States. These will all help cap price losses. But the price is still falling at present, so buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal declines in price today, of which it settles down 30-50 yuan/tonne at 2,150-2,270 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,200, down 40; Guangdong 2,150; Fujian 2,150). As the weather gets colder, aquaculture is gradually fading, and the overall demand is poor due to the ASF. In consequence, rapeseed meal inventory increased by 66% from the previous week to 20,000 tonnes in coastal areas, which weighed on price of rapeseed meal. However, U.S. Pres. Donald Trump said on last Friday he had not agreed to a rollback of tariffs imposed during the trade war in phase, raising concerns about relations between China and U.S. In addition, short-term price declines of rapeseed meal are also limited by tight supply of rapeseed under pending issues between China and Canada and decreasing operation rate. Meal futures have not stopped falling yet, so buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make replenishment.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal price goes stable today. It is 9,100-9,500 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content, 9,400-9,800 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 9,900-10,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 10,100-10,600 yuan/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. With new-season investigations underway, there is news that the catch totaled 37367 tonnes in the centre-north regions on November 7, 287 ships for fishing and 106 tonnes for each ship, fish size at around 14-14.5cm and no juvenile fish. The good fishing prospect in Peru is a curb on the fishmeal market in China. But the Peruvian government has not yet released catch quotas, and traders now prefer propping up the price to adjust it, which will continue to support the market. The overall market is predicted to keep steady in the near term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 94,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 32,000 tonnes, Shanghai 48,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 8,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: it is quoted steadily at 1,180 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content and 1,380 USD/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard SD with 65% protein content is 1,100 USD/tonne, and super SD with 68% protein content at 1,330 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal price stays stable with a fluctuation of 20-70 yuan/tonne today. The demand for meals is hopeful to pick up because of a rise in stocks of pig and laying fowl. And at present, factories basically have no cottonseed meal inventory, and cottonseed price is high. Hence, all these factors offer support to cottonseed meal market. Besides, U.S. Pres. Trump said that he had not agreed to a rollback of additional tariffs on China, raising some doubts on trade deal, which is bullish for meals market. However, cottonseed meal price is also weighed down by poor demand affected by narrowed price gap between soybean meal and cottonseed meal. Moreover, meals on DCE today fall back with low opens, and spot soybean meal down by 20-30 yuan/tonne. Therefore, short-term cottonseed meal is likely to fluctuate at a narrow range, and buyers can make proper replenishment upon low and stable prices.

(USD $1=CNY 6.99)