Today (Nov. 11), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

 

Imported soybean: Imported soybeans keep steady today, among which Kazakhstan soybean is unchanged at 4,160 yuan/tonne, and Ukraine soybean at 3,500 yuan/tonne. The supply of imported soybeans in the distributed market is very limited, in addition to decent delivery among traders, which is a support to the market at present. Meanwhile, Trump said last Friday that he has not agreed to roll back tariffs on Chinese goods, which has triggered the concern about a trade deal between China and the United States. Traders now tend to stay on the sidelines due to the uncertain US-China trade relationship. Short-term market for imported soybeans will likely stay stable in the short term. 

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices fluctuate in a range of 0.01-0.08 yuan/kg today. Oil mills remain wary of purchasing due to the high and irregular price of Xinjiang cottonseed, so the trading volume is not good, which leads price of cottonseed in Xinjiang to drop. But factories have no inventory of cottonseed oil and cottonseed meal, while mills need to buy cottonseed for processing amid many orders waiting for delivery. At present, the vehicles from Xinjiang to inland are limited due to transshipment for red dates. Therefore, cottonseed market is supported by these factors, but the price still goes up with fluctuations overall. Buyers can make proper replenishment on the dips.

Summary: US soybean ended lower last Friday on higher-than-expected soybean production and stocks in the USDA report. But Trump said last Friday that he has not agreed to roll back tariffs on Chinese goods, and China’s soybean oil stocks fell 5.8% to 1.184 mln tonnes last week because soybean crush dropped to 1.54 mln tonnes amid shortages, so oil futures post sharp rises on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. In the spot markets, soybean oil goes up 40-90 yuan/tonne, and palm oil mostly goes up 20-60 yuan/tonne, and there may be growing trading at low levels, but little at high levels. Mills are buying up on soybean as the crush margin stays at a high level of 225-249 yuan/tonne on the DCE, but soybean oil stocks are likely to drop further as buyers will stock up oils for festivals earlier as the Spring Festival will come earlier this year and mills still have a backlog of contracts to be fulfilled. State-owned firms saw the trading at nearly 100,000 tonnes last Friday for January to March contracts. Funds keep going long in the oil market, and mills are calling for higher prices, so the oil market is predicted to keep its strengthening trend. Buyers are suggested to make appropriate replenishment on the dips, but not to chase after excessively high prices. 

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 6,680-6,730 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, up 40-90 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 6,680-6,690, Rizhao traders 6,720, Zhangjiagang traders 6,730, and Guangzhou traders 6,690-6,700). 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 5,390-5,580 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, mostly up 20-60 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 5,530, up 20; Rizhao traders 5,580, up 60; Zhangjiagang traders 5,480, flat; Guangzhou traders 5,390, up 60; and Xiamen yet offered). 

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil rises in price today, of which it settles up 30-40 yuan at 7,600-7,730 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian 7,600; Guangdong yet offered; and Guangxi 7,730). Mills are broadly short of rapeseed at present due to the influence of rocky relationship between China and Canada, so rapeseed oil has also been in very tight supply. Meanwhile, downstream demand is going better now with the coming of peak consumption season. Rapeseed oil stocks declined by 4% to 420,000 tonnes last week. The report by Malaysian Palm Oil Board has helped DCE oil futures expand gains in afternoon trading, so the overall oil market is still bullish. 

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil price stays stable with some rises of 50-250 yuan/tonne and individual declines of 50 yuan/tonne today. Factories have no cottonseed oil stock, and the quantity of spot goods is small. Besides, U.S. Pres. Trump said that he had not agreed to a rollback of tariffs imposed during the trade war in phases. Additionally, oils on DCE today are dramatically higher with a low operation rate in soy oil mills. Spot soybean oil is up 40-90 yuan/tonne, and palm oil mostly increases by 20-60 yuan/tonne. Thus, cottonseed oil market is buoyed by these factors, but some factories reduce the price to attract more orders due to light trading of new orders. Moreover, it is about to enter a peak season for stocking up before the festival. As Malaysia palm oil stocks unexpectedly drop, oils on DCE extend gains in the afternoon, so the overall cottonseed oil market may maintain an upward trend with fluctuations. Buyers can maintain appropriate inventory on the dips but not chase up prices too high.