Price: Imported soybeans only have a supply of 25,000 tonnes in China at present, in addition to smooth delivery at ports, which is a support to the market. But Chinese soybeans are in liberal supplies. And China may increase US soybean purchases amid smooth trade negotiations, so that domestic soybeans may be in looser supply. The overall distributed market for imported soybeans is predicted to be steady with narrow adjustments.

Crush: Soybean crush continues to be slightly lower this week (Nov. 2-8) due to soybean shortages. The crush at domestic mills totals 1547450 tonnes (meal 1222485 tonnes and oil 294015 tonnes), down 7000 tonnes, or 0.45%, from 1554450 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, the operation rate (capacity utilization) is 42.68%, down 0.2 percentage points from 42.88% in the previous week. Soybean crush is predicted to increase to around 1.68 mln tonnes next week and to 1.77 mln tonnes that following week. 

As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 8,534,450 tonnes in the crushing year of 2019/20 (from October 1st, 2019), down 2,003,335 tonnes, or 19.01%, from 10,537,785 tonnes of the same period last year. In 2019 (from Jan. 1st, 2019), national soybean crush amounts to 70,575,865 tonnes, down 5,391,715 tonnes, or 7.10%, from 75,967,580 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2018. 

Inventory: Soybean stocks slightly increases this week as soybean crush falls to 1.54 mln tonnes. In the week as of November 8th, imported soybean stocks total 3.184 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, up 219,100 tonnes by 7.39% from 2,964,900 tonnes last week yet down by 50.99% from 6,497,600 tonnes of the same period last year. Soybean crush will return higher to 1.68 mln tonnes and 1.77 mln tonnes in the next two weeks, so the stocks will likely drop accordingly.

Import and its outlook: According to Cofeed, imported soybean is 23 cargoes with 1.488 mln tonnes this week, a total of 26 cargoes with 1.679 mln tonnes for November so far. The import is predicted to be 8.1085 mln tonnes for November and 9 mln tonnes for December, and 7.0 mln tonnes 3.90 mln tonnes respectively for January and February, 2020. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.  

Price: This week (Nov. 4-8), domestic soybean meal prices continue declining overall. As of this Friday, the price settles down 10-30 yuan/tonne at 2,970-3,160 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions. 

Inventory: Soybean meal stocks continue falling this week with lower soybean crush. In the week as of November 8th, the inventory totals 412,100 tonnes, down 69,100 tonnes by 14.36% from 481,200 tonnes last week and down by 57.75% from 975,500 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. The inventory is predicted to slow down declines with higher crush next week, but the total tight supply will ease only after late November or December. 

Price: This week (Nov. 4-8), domestic soybean oil prices rise for a fifth consecutive week. As of this Friday, the price for GB Grade I settles up 70-130 yuan/tonne at 6,600-6,670 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions. 

Inventory: Soybean oil stocks continue to decline significantly this week due to lower soybean crush with strong demand and quick delivery. In the week as of Nov. 8th, China’s commercial inventory has totaled 1,184,350 tonnes, down 72,200 tonnes by 5.75% from 1,256,550 tonnes last week, down 167,650 tonnes by 12.4% from 1,352,000 tonnes last month, and down 655,650 tonnes by 35.63% from 1,840,000 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,334,500 tonnes. Mills now have a backlog of contracts in November and December, so soybean oil stocks will probably drop further for some time in the future.