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China’s Palm Oil Stocks and Arrivals Weekly (Week 45, 2019)

2019-11-12 www.cofeed.com
I. National stocks

This week (as of Nov. 8), edible palm oil stock totals 610,500 tonnes at domestic ports, up 14.2% from 534,600 tonnes last week and up 67,800 tonnes or 12.5% from 542,700 tonnes the same period last month and up 207,900 tonnes or 51.6% from 402,600 tonnes the same period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports totals 133,100 tonnes, down 16,500 tonnes or 11% from 149,600 tonnes last week.

The price gap between soybean oil and palm oil continues narrowing this week. As of this Friday, the price gap is 1,190 yuan/tonne, narrowing 28 yuan/tonne from 1,218 yuan/tonne last week. Besides, the usage volume for palm oil as blending oil will be also restricted with the temperature decreasing. This week, the trade volume of palm oil becomes light, which totals 19,200 tonnes, down 26,400 tonnes or 57.9% from 45,600 tonnes last week. In addition, palm oil stock this week stops falling and picks up due to an increase of cargoes arriving at ports. The monthly import volume of RBD palm olein from November to December is predicted to reach around 550,000 tonnes on average. And it will be easy to stimulate domestic purchases of cargoes once the import profits enlarge. Besides, the usage volume for palm oil as blending oil will be also restricted with the temperature decreasing, so it is possible that domestic palm oil stock will rise in the late period.

Region
/Port

Edible Palm Oil Stocks0'000 mT

Industrial Palm Oil Stocks

W45

W44

Change

M-O-M

Y-O-Y

W45

W44

Change

Tianjin Port

5.7

7

-1.3

-48.40%

-54.40%

4.25

4.05

0.2

Hebei

0.25

0.45

-0.2

-66.60%

-58.30%

0.05

0.07

-0.02

Shandong Port

4.21

3.06

1.15

-8.10%

90.00%

1.03

1.26

-0.23

East China

17.45

16.4

1.05

34.20%

48.30%

5.35

6.65

-1.3

Guangdong

26.7

20.85

5.85

57.50%

135.87%

2.4

2.55

-0.15

Guangxi

2.34

2.5

-0.16

-27.70%

4.00%

0.23

0.38

-0.15

Fujian

4.4

3.2

1.2

-6.30%

95.50%

0

0

0

Total

61.05

53.46

7.59

12.49%

33.60%

13.31

14.96

-1.65




Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years

II. Goods Arrivals

According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the estimate of import volume for November this week is 670,000 tonnes, up by 50,000 tonnes from last week (RBD palm olein 550,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes), and the estimate for December also increases by 50,000 tonnes to 670,000 tonnes compared with last week (RBD palm olein 550,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes).

III. Margins and Shipments


Date

Sailing Schedule

CNF
USD/mT

Duty Paid
(RBM/mT)

DCE
(RBM/mT)

Import Margin

2019/11/4

Dec. 2019

620

5246

5300

54

2019/11/5

Dec. 2019

660

5580

5404

-176

2019/11/6

Dec. 2019

645

5430

5382

-48

2019/11/7

Dec. 2019

650

5489

5312

-177

2019/11/8

Dec. 2019

645

5415

5338

-77

 

 

Cargoes

Sailing Schedule

CNF
USD/mT

Duty Paid
(RBM/mT)

Qty.
0'000 mT

2019/11/4

0

  

 

 

 

2019/11/5

0

 

 

 

 

2019/11/6

0

 

 

 

 

2019/11/7

0

 

 

 

 

2019/11/8

0