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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 11/12/2019

2019-11-12 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,680  3,080  3,702  4,205  150 -653 3,906 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,700  3,100  3,722  4,205  150 -633 3,901 
Costal Shandong 6,770  3,070  3,712  4,205  150 -643 3,884 
Jiangsu 6,700  2,940  3,596  4,205  150 -759 3,901 
Guangdong 6,750  2,890  3,566  4,205  150 -789 3,889 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Nov. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,680  3,080  3,702  4,112  150 -560 3,788 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,700  3,100  3,722  4,112  150 -540 3,784 
Costal Shandong 6,770  3,070  3,712  4,112  150 -550 3,767 
Jiangsu 6,700  2,940  3,596  4,112  150 -666 3,784 
Guangdong 6,750  2,890  3,566  4,112  150 -696 3,772 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,680  3,080  3,769  3,286  150  333  2,658 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,700  3,100  3,789  3,286  150  353  2,653 
Costal Shandong 6,770  3,070  3,779  3,286  150  343  2,635 
Jiangsu 6,700  2,940  3,663  3,286  150  227  2,653 
Guangdong 6,750  2,890  3,633  3,286  150  197  2,641 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,680  3,080  3,636  3,170  150  316  2,681 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,700  3,100  3,655  3,170  150  335  2,676 
Costal Shandong 6,770  3,070  3,644  3,170  150  324  2,660 
Jiangsu 6,700  2,940  3,529  3,170  150  209  2,676 
Guangdong 6,750  2,890  3,498  3,170  150  178  2,665 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,680  3,080  3,669  3,470  150  49  3,018 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,700  3,100  3,689  3,470  150  69  3,013 
Costal Shandong 6,770  3,070  3,678  3,470  150  58  2,997 
Jiangsu 6,700  2,940  3,562  3,470  150  -58  3,013 
Guangdong 6,750  2,890  3,532  3,470  150  -88  3,002 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,830  3,230  3,677  3,430  160  87  3,122 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,680  3,080  3,533  3,550  160  -177  3,302 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,700  3,100  3,552  3,570  160  -178  3,323 
Boxing, Shandong 6,720  3,090  3,547  3,590  160  -203  3,344 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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