Today (Nov. 12), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

 

Imported soybean: Imported soybeans keep steady today, among which Kazakhstan soybean is unchanged at 4,160 yuan/tonne, and Ukraine soybean at 3,500 yuan/tonne. The supply of imported soybeans in the distributed market is very limited, in addition to decent delivery among traders, which is a support to the market at present. Meanwhile, Trump said last Friday that he has not agreed to roll back tariffs on Chinese goods, subduing the upbeat sentiment about a trade deal between China and the United States. Traders now tend to stay on the sidelines due to the uncertain US-China trade relationship. Short-term market for imported soybeans will likely stay stable in the short term. 

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices stay stable with some fluctuations of 0.01-0.04 yuan/kg. Oil mills remain wary of purchasing Xinjiang cottonseed due to the high and irregular prices, so the trading volume is not good, which drags down the cottonseed market. But the contradiction between supply and demand becomes noticeable due to less cottonseed products than last year, so cotton ginning mills treasure the goods in hand, which also supports the cottonseed market. Thus, it is predicted that overall cottonseed price still goes up with fluctuations. Buyers can make proper replenishment on the dips.

Summary: Trump said that he has not agreed the rollback of US tariff sought by China, in addition to an accelerating harvest under dry weather, so US soybean futures sharply declined last night. Oil futures stay below the previous close on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. In the spot markets, soybean oil and palm oil are mostly stable with tepid trading. Gross margins for soybean crush on the DCE stay at the high level of 251-264 yuan/tonne, and the rises in oil futures are slowed down by the arbitrage in the market. US soybean imports under the waivers provided by the Chinese government are demand for the 33% duties first, so that some mills with small cash flow have no choice but to delay customs clearance. It is learned that there are 200 million tonnes of US soybeans stuck at northern ports in China, waiting to be cleared and unloaded. Due to such a slow pace, commercial soybean supply is shrinking and mills are keeping low operation rates. Soybean oil stocks fell 6% to 1.184 mln tonnes, and mills still have a backlog of contracts to be fulfilled, so the stocks will be likely to decline further, possibly below 1 mln tonnes by the end of this year. In addition, Malaysian palm oil has seen declines in its production and stocks but an accelerating increase in exports, which sent its futures to a 22-month high on the BMD yesterday. With such an upbeat sentiment, the market is predicted to extend its strengthening trend.

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 6,680-6,730 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, some up 80 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 6,700-6,710, Rizhao traders 6,780, Zhangjiagang traders 6,800, and Guangzhou traders 6,720). 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 5,530-5,720 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. Traders offering yesterday afternoon are adjusting the price by 10 yuan/tonne, and those who did not offer yesterday afternoon raise the prices by 140-160 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 5660-5680, up 10; Rizhaotraders5,720, up 140; Zhangjiagang traders 5,640, up 160; Guangzhou traders 5,530, down 10; and Xiamen 5,700, flat).

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil rises in price today, of which it settles up 10-20 yuan at 7,620-7,770 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian 7,620, up 20; Guangdong yet offered; and Guangxi 7,770). China has tight rapeseed supplies at present as it is purchases very few cargoes from Canada, so that its mills are lowering down operation rates. Rapeseed and rapeseed oil stocks have declined for a fourth consecutive week in the coastal regions. Besides, buyers will stock for the New Day holiday and the Spring Festival earlier this year, and mills now are fulfilling contracts, so rapeseed oil stocks still have some space for declines. Due to an inflation expectation triggered by the surging hog prices, funds are going long in oil futures. Mills are active raising prices, so the overall oil market is still bullish. But the rises are slower today, so participants are suggested not to chase after excessively high prices. 

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil price stays stable with some rises of 50-100 yuan/tonne today. Factories have no cottonseed oil stock, and the quantity of spot goods is small. And cottonseed price is higher. Hence, cottonseed oil market is supported by these factors. But there are fewer inquiries in some factories, so the trading volume of new orders is light, which will limit the rises of prices. Additionally, it is about to enter a peak season for stocking up before the New Year’s Day, so cottonseed oil market outlook is expected to maintain an upward trend with fluctuations. Buyers can maintain appropriate inventory on the dips but not chase up prices too high.