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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 11/13/2019

2019-11-13 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,640  3,080  3,695  4,220  150 -675 3,935 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,630  3,100  3,709  4,220  150 -661 3,937 
Costal Shandong 6,700  3,070  3,698  4,220  150 -672 3,920 
Jiangsu 6,630  3,020  3,646  4,220  150 -725 3,937 
Guangdong 6,730  2,910  3,578  4,220  150 -792 3,913 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Nov. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,640  3,080  3,695  4,129  150 -584 3,819 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,630  3,100  3,709  4,129  150 -570 3,822 
Costal Shandong 6,700  3,070  3,698  4,129  150 -581 3,805 
Jiangsu 6,630  3,020  3,646  4,129  150 -634 3,822 
Guangdong 6,730  2,910  3,578  4,129  150 -701 3,798 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,640  3,080  3,761  3,298  150  313  2,684 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,630  3,100  3,775  3,298  150  327  2,686 
Costal Shandong 6,700  3,070  3,765  3,298  150  317  2,668 
Jiangsu 6,630  3,020  3,712  3,298  150  264  2,686 
Guangdong 6,730  2,910  3,645  3,298  150  197  2,661 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,640  3,080  3,628  3,181  150  297  2,704 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,630  3,100  3,642  3,181  150  311  2,706 
Costal Shandong 6,700  3,070  3,631  3,181  150  300  2,690 
Jiangsu 6,630  3,020  3,579  3,181  150  248  2,706 
Guangdong 6,730  2,910  3,510  3,181  150  179  2,683 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,640  3,080  3,662  3,470  150  42  3,027 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,630  3,100  3,676  3,470  150  56  3,030 
Costal Shandong 6,700  3,070  3,665  3,470  150  45  3,013 
Jiangsu 6,630  3,020  3,612  3,470  150  -8  3,030 
Guangdong 6,730  2,910  3,544  3,470  150  -76  3,006 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,790  3,230  3,670  3,430  160  80  3,130 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,640  3,080  3,526  3,550  160  -184  3,310 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,630  3,100  3,541  3,570  160  -189  3,337 
Boxing, Shandong 6,720  3,100  3,555  3,590  160  -195  3,344 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.