Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 11/13/2019

2019-11-13 www.cofeed.com

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,640	3,080	3,695	4,220	150	-675	3,935
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,630	3,100	3,709	4,220	150	-661	3,937
Costal Shandong	6,700	3,070	3,698	4,220	150	-672	3,920
Jiangsu	6,630	3,020	3,646	4,220	150	-725	3,937
Guangdong	6,730	2,910	3,578	4,220	150	-792	3,913

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Nov. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,640	3,080	3,695	4,129	150	-584	3,819
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,630	3,100	3,709	4,129	150	-570	3,822
Costal Shandong	6,700	3,070	3,698	4,129	150	-581	3,805
Jiangsu	6,630	3,020	3,646	4,129	150	-634	3,822
Guangdong	6,730	2,910	3,578	4,129	150	-701	3,798

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,640	3,080	3,761	3,298	150	313	2,684
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,630	3,100	3,775	3,298	150	327	2,686
Costal Shandong	6,700	3,070	3,765	3,298	150	317	2,668
Jiangsu	6,630	3,020	3,712	3,298	150	264	2,686
Guangdong	6,730	2,910	3,645	3,298	150	197	2,661

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,640	3,080	3,628	3,181	150	297	2,704
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,630	3,100	3,642	3,181	150	311	2,706
Costal Shandong	6,700	3,070	3,631	3,181	150	300	2,690
Jiangsu	6,630	3,020	3,579	3,181	150	248	2,706
Guangdong	6,730	2,910	3,510	3,181	150	179	2,683

Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,640	3,080	3,662	3,470	150	42	3,027
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,630	3,100	3,676	3,470	150	56	3,030
Costal Shandong	6,700	3,070	3,665	3,470	150	45	3,013
Jiangsu	6,630	3,020	3,612	3,470	150	-8	3,030
Guangdong	6,730	2,910	3,544	3,470	150	-76	3,006

Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang	6,790	3,230	3,670	3,430	160	80	3,130
Dalian, Liaoning	6,640	3,080	3,526	3,550	160	-184	3,310
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,630	3,100	3,541	3,570	160	-189	3,337
Boxing, Shandong	6,720	3,100	3,555	3,590	160	-195	3,344
Remarks: 1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory. 2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%; Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%. 3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price. 4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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