Today (Nov. 13), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

 

Soybean meal: Despite the uncertainty in US-China trade relations and a quicker pace in US soybean harvest, US soybeans steadied last night as USDA weekly export reports were in line with the market forecast. Meal futures moderately rebound on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices rise by 10-20 yuan/tonne, and the trading remains good both for spot and forward months. Specifically, the price settles at 2,910-3,110 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 3,110, Shandong 3,040-3,050, Jiangsu 2,980-2990, Dongguan 2,900-2,910, and Guangxi 2,930-2,950, Fujian 2,910-2,920). China has offered duty exemptions to some soybean crushers weeks ago to encourage goodwill purchases from the United States, but the details of these waivers as well as how to implement such waivers has never been made public before. So now some crushers are struggling with financial issues, for they need to pay the 33% duties to have their soybean cargoes offloaded, and some of them have no choice but to delay the clearance.  For a lack of commercial supply, mills can only keep low crush volume. Soybean meal stocks thus declined 14% to 410,000 tonnes in coastal regions as of November 8th. Some northern mills are still limiting the quantity for delivery, and some eastern mills have a plan for downtime in mid-November. Besides, hog farming is into the recovery period. Therefore, soybean meal prices steady to slightly rebound. But the market sentiment is subdued by the falling hog prices. And the demand from aquaculture in South China is gradually in low season. Traders tend to going long in oils, which is a curb on the upward potential in soybean meal prices. It is not suggested to go short in soybean meal due to its tight supplies. Buyers can make appropriate replenishment on the dips and remain cautious in chasing after higher prices. 

 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal stays stable with a rise in price today, of which it settles up 10-20 yuan/tonne at 2,150-2,220 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,180, stable; Guangdong not offered; Fujian not offered). Some factories have no rapeseed arriving at ports due to the tight supply of rapeseed under tensions between China and Canada. Therefore, the rapeseed crush is predicted to decline, and rapeseed meal inventory will fall further. In consequence, oil mills are more willing to raise prices. However, the rises of rapeseed meal price are curbed as the U.S. soybeans price declines under pressure of a huge quantity of marketing; the demand for aquaculture is gradually entering into an off-season; the impact of African swine fever is not over. Buyers are suggested to make proper replenishment on the dips and not to drive up prices excessively.

 

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are lower today. It is down 100 yuan at 9,100-9,300 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content, 9,300-9,500 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 9,700-10,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 10,100-10,500 yuan/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. With new-season investigations underway in the centre-north regions, the fishing quota is set at 2.786 mln tonnes, which is relatively high, so domestic traders now have strong sentiment to wait on the sidelines. The aquaculture has been over in north China as the weather gets colder, and the African swine fever is still spreading, which still curbs the demand for feed. The overall market is predicted to continue the weak trend in the near term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 92,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 32,000 tonnes, Shanghai 47,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 9,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: it is quoted steadily at 1,180 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content and 1,380 USD/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard SD with 65% protein content is 1,100 USD/tonne, and super SD with 68% protein content at 1,330 USD/tonne.

 

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal price stays stable with some declines of 20-50 yuan/tonne today. The cottonseed meal market is weighed down by weak demand affected by narrowed price gap between soybean meal and cottonseed meal and slow delivery of some factories. However, the demand for meals is hopeful to pick up because of a rise in stocks of pig and laying fowl. Also, cottonseed price is high. Beside this, meals on DCE today rebound moderately, and spot soybean meal rises by 10-20 yuan/tonne. All these factors limit the declines of cottonseed meal price. Thus, short-term cottonseed meal market may move sideways with fluctuations. Buyers can make proper replenishment upon low and stable prices.