Today (Nov. 13), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

 

 

Imported soybean: Imported soybeans keep steady today, among which Kazakhstan soybean is unchanged at 4,160 yuan/tonne, and Ukraine soybean at 3,500 yuan/tonne. The supply of imported soybeans in the distribution market is very limited, in addition to decent delivery among traders, which is a support to the market at present. The market is worried about whether the signed soybean contracts can be fulfilled smoothly amid the uncertain US-China trade relationship. US soybean imports may be limited later, and traders are staying on the sidelines. Short-term market for imported soybeans will likely stay stable in the short term. 

 

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices stay stable with some weak fluctuations of 0.02-0.06 yuan/kg. Oil mills remain wary of purchasing Xinjiang cottonseed due to the high and irregular prices, so the trading volume is not good, which drags down the cottonseed market. But the contradiction between supply and demand becomes noticeable due to less cottonseed products than last year, so cotton ginning mills treasure the goods in hand, which also supports the cottonseed market. Thus, it is predicted that overall cottonseed price still goes up with fluctuations. Buyers can make proper replenishment upon low and stable prices.

 

 

Summary: US soybeans were little changed last night, and oil futures fluctuate to decline on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. In the spot markets, soybean oil are moderately lower and palm oil fluctuates fractionally, both in tepid trading. Gross crush margins for soybeans of nearby months on the DCE still stay high at 258-270 yuan/tonne so far, and the oil market now is curbed by the arbitrage. Therefore, mills have to keep low operation rates for a lack of commercial soybeans. Soybean oil stocks thus declined by 6% to 1.18 mln tonnes as of November 8th, and mills still have a backlog of contracts to be fulfilled, so the stocks may fall further below 1 mln tonnes. As buyers will have peak demand in stocking up for the holidays, coupled with the uncertainty in trade relations between China and the United States, the market is still bullish about oils. The oil market is predicted to keep its strengthening trend, but there may be some adjustments with fluctuations. Buyers can wait at the moment. 

 

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 6,680-6,770 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, mostly down 10-70 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 6,680-6,690, Rizhao traders 6,770, Zhangjiagang traders 6,730, and Guangzhou traders 6,690-6,710). 

 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 5,530-5,710 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, fluctuating by 10-40 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 5,650-5,660, down 10; Rizhao traders 5,710, down 10; Zhangjiagang traders 5,600, down 40; Guangzhou traders 5,530, up 10; and Xiamen 5,680, down 20).

 

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil steadies in price today, of which it settles at 7,620-7,770 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian 7,620, stable; Guangdong yet offered; and Guangxi 7,770, stable). There is no sign of a thaw in relations between China and Canada, so mills in China now can just halt crush for rapeseed shortages. And while stocks for soybean oil and rapeseed oil are both heading downward, the market will begin to stock up for the Spring Festival soon. Mills now are stalling sales for higher prices when they are mostly carrying out contracts in hand. In addition, due to an inflation expectation triggered by the surging hog prices, the market continues to be bullish about oil prices. Rapeseed oil prices will probably keep the strengthening trend, but there may be some adjustments with fluctuations at high levels. Buyers can wait at the moment. 

 

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil price stays stable with some rises of 50-100 yuan/tonne today.

Factories have no cottonseed oil stock, and the quantity of spot goods is small. And cottonseed price is higher. Hence, cottonseed oil market is supported by these factors. But there are fewer inquiries in some factories, so the trading volume of new orders is light. Meanwhile, soybean oil on DCE today sees stagflation and correction, and spot soybean oil falls back moderately. Therefore, the rises of prices are limited. Additionally, the peak season for stocking up packing oil before the New Year’s Day has begun, so cottonseed oil market outlook is expected to maintain an upward trend with fluctuations. But short-term market may follow bulk oils to fluctuate to adjust, and buyers can wait and see.