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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 11/14/2019

2019-11-14 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,520  3,100  3,688  4,235  150 -697 3,983 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,600  3,060  3,671  4,235  150 -714 3,963 
Costal Shandong 6,620  3,060  3,675  4,235  150 -710 3,958 
Jiangsu 6,530  3,020  3,627  4,235  150 -759 3,980 
Guangdong 6,650  2,900  3,555  4,235  150 -831 3,951 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Nov. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,520  3,100  3,688  4,117  150 -579 3,833 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,600  3,060  3,671  4,117  150 -596 3,814 
Costal Shandong 6,620  3,060  3,675  4,117  150 -592 3,809 
Jiangsu 6,530  3,020  3,627  4,117  150 -641 3,831 
Guangdong 6,650  2,900  3,555  4,117  150 -713 3,802 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,520  3,100  3,753  3,299  150  304  2,715 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,600  3,060  3,737  3,299  150  288  2,695 
Costal Shandong 6,620  3,060  3,741  3,299  150  292  2,690 
Jiangsu 6,530  3,020  3,692  3,299  150  243  2,713 
Guangdong 6,650  2,900  3,621  3,299  150  172  2,682 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,520  3,100  3,623  3,160  150  313  2,704 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,600  3,060  3,605  3,160  150  295  2,686 
Costal Shandong 6,620  3,060  3,609  3,160  150  299  2,682 
Jiangsu 6,530  3,020  3,561  3,160  150  251  2,702 
Guangdong 6,650  2,900  3,488  3,160  150  178  2,675 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,520  3,100  3,655  3,470  150  35  3,055 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,600  3,060  3,638  3,470  150  18  3,037 
Costal Shandong 6,620  3,060  3,642  3,470  150  22  3,032 
Jiangsu 6,530  3,020  3,594  3,470  150  -26  3,053 
Guangdong 6,650  2,900  3,521  3,470  150  -99  3,025 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,670  3,250  3,667  3,430  160  77  3,154 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,520  3,100  3,523  3,550  160  -187  3,334 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,600  3,060  3,504  3,570  160  -226  3,343 
Boxing, Shandong 6,640  3,090  3,534  3,590  160  -216  3,360 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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