Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 11/14/2019

2019-11-14 www.cofeed.com

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,520	3,100	3,688	4,235	150	-697	3,983
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,600	3,060	3,671	4,235	150	-714	3,963
Costal Shandong	6,620	3,060	3,675	4,235	150	-710	3,958
Jiangsu	6,530	3,020	3,627	4,235	150	-759	3,980
Guangdong	6,650	2,900	3,555	4,235	150	-831	3,951

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Nov. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,520	3,100	3,688	4,117	150	-579	3,833
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,600	3,060	3,671	4,117	150	-596	3,814
Costal Shandong	6,620	3,060	3,675	4,117	150	-592	3,809
Jiangsu	6,530	3,020	3,627	4,117	150	-641	3,831
Guangdong	6,650	2,900	3,555	4,117	150	-713	3,802

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,520	3,100	3,753	3,299	150	304	2,715
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,600	3,060	3,737	3,299	150	288	2,695
Costal Shandong	6,620	3,060	3,741	3,299	150	292	2,690
Jiangsu	6,530	3,020	3,692	3,299	150	243	2,713
Guangdong	6,650	2,900	3,621	3,299	150	172	2,682

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,520	3,100	3,623	3,160	150	313	2,704
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,600	3,060	3,605	3,160	150	295	2,686
Costal Shandong	6,620	3,060	3,609	3,160	150	299	2,682
Jiangsu	6,530	3,020	3,561	3,160	150	251	2,702
Guangdong	6,650	2,900	3,488	3,160	150	178	2,675

Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,520	3,100	3,655	3,470	150	35	3,055
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,600	3,060	3,638	3,470	150	18	3,037
Costal Shandong	6,620	3,060	3,642	3,470	150	22	3,032
Jiangsu	6,530	3,020	3,594	3,470	150	-26	3,053
Guangdong	6,650	2,900	3,521	3,470	150	-99	3,025

Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang	6,670	3,250	3,667	3,430	160	77	3,154
Dalian, Liaoning	6,520	3,100	3,523	3,550	160	-187	3,334
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,600	3,060	3,504	3,570	160	-226	3,343
Boxing, Shandong	6,640	3,090	3,534	3,590	160	-216	3,360
Remarks: 1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory. 2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%; Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%. 3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price. 4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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