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Daily Review on Meal Market in China--14/11/2019

2019-11-14 www.cofeed.com
Today (Nov. 14), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: President Donald Trump dangled the prospect of completing an initial trade deal with China soon and offered no details on negotiations or specific time or site, but a report said that trade talks between the U.S. and China have hit a snag over farm purchases. US soybean futures thus fell last night. And meal futures fractionally fluctuate on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices steadily fluctuate by 10-20 yuan/tonne, and the trading remains good both for both spot and forward months. Specifically, the price settles at 2,920-3,110 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 3,110, Shandong 3,040-3,060, Jiangsu 2,980-2990, Dongguan 2,900-2,910, and Guangxi 2,930-2,950, Fujian 2,920-2,940). Rains forecast in the coming two weeks are favorable to soybean planting and growth in Brazil, and Brazilian soybean premiums have also slightly fallen. The decline in hog price recently has affected the market sentiment, and the demand from aquaculture in South China has also gone slack, which have dampened soybean meal prices. But tight soybean supplies have made mills keep low crush, and soybean meal traded well by 620,000 tonnes yesterday. Soybean meal stocks had already fallen 14% to 410,000 tonnes as of November 8th, and mills in North China are still limiting the quantity for delivery. Besides, investors are making short covering after a sharp decline in oil futures, which may boost soybean meal prices to fluctuate to rebound moderately. Buyers are suggested to make appropriate replenishment on the dips and remain cautious in chasing after high prices.  

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal price keeps stable today, of which it settles at 2,150-2,200 yuan/tonne (Guangxi 2,180, stable; Guangdong not offered; Fujian 2,160). Most factories have no rapeseed arriving at ports in the late period due to the tight supply of rapeseed amid tensions between China and Canada, so oil mills tend to raise prices. However, U.S. Soybeans are going marketing in huge quantities, and the crush margin of soybean futures is good, which attracts Chinese oil plants to purchase soybeans actively. Moreover, the demand for aquaculture is gradually entering into an off-season, and the impact of African swine fever is not over. Therefore, rapeseed meal price is curbed and weak in rising. Buyers are suggested to make proper replenishment on the dips and not to chase up prices too high.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable with some further declines today. It is 8900-9,300 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content, 9200-9600 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 9500-10100 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 9900-10400 yuan/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content, some further down by 100-200 yuan/tonne from yesterday. With new-season investigations underway in the centre-north regions, the fishing quota is set at 2.786 mln tonnes, which is relatively high, so domestic traders now have strong sentiment to wait on the sidelines. The aquaculture has been over in north China as the weather gets colder, and the African swine fever is still spreading, which still curbs the demand for feed. The overall market is predicted to continue the weak trend in the near term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 92,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 31,000 tonnes, Shanghai 47,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 8,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: it is quoted steadily at 1,180 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content and 1,380 USD/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard SD with 65% protein content is 1,100 USD/tonne, and super SD with 68% protein content at 1,330 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal price stays stable with some declines of 10-50 yuan/tonne today. The cottonseed meal market is weighed down by weak demand affected by narrowed price gap between soybean meal and cottonseed meal and slow delivery of some factories. However, the demand for meals is hopeful to pick up because of a rise in stocks of pig and laying fowl. Also, cottonseed price is high. These factors limit the declines of cottonseed meal price. Thus, short-term cottonseed meal market may follow soybean meal to move sideways with fluctuations. Buyers can make proper replenishment upon low and stable prices.

(USD $1=CNY 7.01)