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Daily Review on Markets for Oilseeds and Oils in China--14/11/2019

Today (Nov. 14), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

Imported soybean: Imported soybeans steady to rise today, among which Kazakhstan soybean goes up 20 yuan to 4,180 yuan/tonne, and Ukraine soybean is unchanged at 3,500 yuan/tonne. Imported soybean supply to distribution markets remains scanty at ports, and traders are in fair shipments. A report said that trade talks between the U.S. and China have hit a snag over farm purchases, which has trimmed the market expectation for the two nations to sign a deal soon. In this case, China may just import US soybeans at a small amount later, which will help support its domestic market. Short-term market for imported soybeans will probably keep firm in the short term. 

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices stay stable with some fluctuations of 0.01-0.02 yuan/kg. The cottonseed products have decreased than last year, and spot goods are tight due to the contract implementation. Thus, the cottonseed market is supported. But cottonseed market is also dragged down, for the delivery pace of cotton by-products is slow; oil mills are cautious in purchasing goods; the market sentiment for trading is not good. Therefore, it is predicted that the overall cottonseed will still keep an upward trend with fluctuations. Buyers can make proper replenishment upon low and stable prices.


Summary: US soybeans eased last night, and oil futures expand losses on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today due to profit taking. In the spot markets, soybean oil and palm oil decline by 50-120 yuan/tonne. The trading is tepid for spot contracts and better upon forward basis. DCE margins for soybean crush reach 249-261 yuan/tonne at present, under which domestic importers bought at least 20 boatloads last week. The industry arbitrage is a curb on the trend of oils. But tight soybean supplies have made mills keep low crush. Soybean oil stocks have declined 6% to 1.18 mln tonnes as of November 8th, and may fall below 1 mln tonnes by the end of this year. The market is bullish about the trading upon forward basis, and soybean oil traded well at 100,000 tonnes yesterday. Besides, there is still uncertainty in relations between China and the United States. It is still early to say that the oil market has reversed the upward trend, but the spot demand turns weak at current high levels, so short-term oil market will probably fluctuate to adjust. Buyers can wait at the moment. 

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 6,570-6,750 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, a decline of 50-120 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 6,570-6,580, Rizhao traders 6,650, Zhangjiagang traders 6,630, and Guangzhou mills 6,580-6,590). 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 5,410-5,570 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down 60-110 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders5,550-5,560, down 70; Rizhaotraders 5,570, down 110; Zhangjiagang traders 5,500, down 100; Guangzhou traders 5,410, down 60; and Xiamen yet offered).

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil declines in price today, of which it settles down 30-50 yuan at 7,550-7,750 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian 7,550, down 50; Guangdong yet offered; and Guangxi 7,750). Good margins for soybean crush on the DCE is attracting Chinese mills to make purchases, which will increase soybean arrivals later. But this is a curb on the rapeseed oil market. But due to tensions between China and Canada, mills now have low rapeseed stocks, leading to a sustained decline in rapeseed oil stocks. Moreover, as the market is in the peak demand for packing oils for the holidays, mills are propping up prices. Therefore, rapeseed oil market still remains positive. Short-term market may enter into the correction territory, and buyers can wait at the moment. 

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil stays stable today. The cottonseed oil market is weighed down by light trading of new orders due to less inquiry in some factories. Furthermore, oils on DCE today extend the downward trend due to the profit taking of buying oils and selling meals, and spot soybean oil and palm oil decline by 50-120 yuan/tonne. But factories have no cottonseed oil stock, and cottonseed price is high. In consequence, factories have a strong wait-and-see mood and tend to raise price. Additionally, the peak season for stocking up packing oil before the New Year’s Day has begun, so cottonseed oil market outlook is expected to maintain an upward trend with fluctuations. But short-term market may follow bulk oils to fluctuate to adjust, and buyers can wait and see.

(USD $1=CNY 7.01)