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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 11/15/2019

2019-11-15 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,470  3,100  3,678  4,232  150 -704 3,991 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,500  3,030  3,629  4,232  150 -753 3,984 
Costal Shandong 6,550  3,050  3,654  4,232  150 -728 3,972 
Jiangsu 6,470  3,000  3,599  4,232  150 -783 3,991 
Guangdong 6,600  2,910  3,553  4,232  150 -829 3,959 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Nov. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,470  3,100  3,678  4,082  150 -554 3,801 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,500  3,030  3,629  4,082  150 -603 3,794 
Costal Shandong 6,550  3,050  3,654  4,082  150 -578 3,782 
Jiangsu 6,470  3,000  3,599  4,082  150 -633 3,801 
Guangdong 6,600  2,910  3,553  4,082  150 -679 3,770 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,470  3,100  3,743  3,300  150  293  2,729 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,500  3,030  3,694  3,300  150  244  2,722 
Costal Shandong 6,550  3,050  3,720  3,300  150  270  2,709 
Jiangsu 6,470  3,000  3,664  3,300  150  214  2,729 
Guangdong 6,600  2,910  3,619  3,300  150  169  2,696 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Nov. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,470  3,100  3,614  3,184  150  280  2,746 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,500  3,030  3,564  3,184  150  230  2,739 
Costal Shandong 6,550  3,050  3,589  3,184  150  255  2,728 
Jiangsu 6,470  3,000  3,535  3,184  150  201  2,746 
Guangdong 6,600  2,910  3,487  3,184  150  153  2,716 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,470  3,100  3,646  3,470  150  26  3,067 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,500  3,030  3,596  3,470  150  -24  3,060 
Costal Shandong 6,550  3,050  3,621  3,470  150  1  3,048 
Jiangsu 6,470  3,000  3,567  3,470  150  -53  3,067 
Guangdong 6,600  2,910  3,520  3,470  150  -100  3,037 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,620  3,250  3,659  3,430  160  69  3,164 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,470  3,100  3,515  3,550  160  -195  3,344 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,500  3,030  3,464  3,570  160  -266  3,363 
Boxing, Shandong 6,620  3,080  3,523  3,590  160  -227  3,364 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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