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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 11/18/2019

2019-11-18 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,470  3,150  3,718  4,237  150 -669 3,997 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,520  3,050  3,648  4,237  150 -739 3,985 
Costal Shandong 6,540  3,090  3,684  4,237  150 -703 3,980 
Jiangsu 6,470  3,030  3,623  4,237  150 -764 3,997 
Guangdong 6,550  2,940  3,567  4,237  150 -820 3,978 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,470  3,150  3,718  4,136  150 -568 3,869 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,520  3,050  3,648  4,136  150 -638 3,857 
Costal Shandong 6,540  3,090  3,684  4,136  150 -602 3,852 
Jiangsu 6,470  3,030  3,623  4,136  150 -663 3,869 
Guangdong 6,550  2,940  3,567  4,136  150 -719 3,850 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,470  3,150  3,783  3,303  150  330  2,733 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,520  3,050  3,714  3,303  150  261  2,720 
Costal Shandong 6,540  3,090  3,749  3,303  150  296  2,715 
Jiangsu 6,470  3,030  3,688  3,303  150  235  2,733 
Guangdong 6,550  2,940  3,633  3,303  150  180  2,713 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,470  3,150  3,653  3,196  150  307  2,761 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,520  3,050  3,583  3,196  150  237  2,750 
Costal Shandong 6,540  3,090  3,618  3,196  150  272  2,745 
Jiangsu 6,470  3,030  3,558  3,196  150  212  2,761 
Guangdong 6,550  2,940  3,502  3,196  150  156  2,743 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,470  3,150  3,685  3,470  150  65  3,067 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,520  3,050  3,616  3,470  150  -4  3,055 
Costal Shandong 6,540  3,090  3,651  3,470  150  31  3,051 
Jiangsu 6,470  3,030  3,591  3,470  150  -29  3,067 
Guangdong 6,550  2,940  3,534  3,470  150  -86  3,048 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,620  3,300  3,699  3,430  160  109  3,164 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,470  3,150  3,555  3,550  160  -155  3,344 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,520  3,050  3,483  3,570  160  -247  3,359 
Boxing, Shandong 6,570  3,090  3,523  3,590  160  -227  3,374 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.
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