According to Cofeed, on the week as of November 15th, details of soybean oil inventories and outstanding contracts are as follows:

 

Despite the overall low soybean crush alongside, mills have a backlog of contracts to fulfill as they have seen strong trading upon November and December basis in soybean oil market since the National Day holidays, so soybean oil stocks decline further this week. In the week as of Nov. 15th, China’s commercial inventory has totaled 1,135,000 tonnes, down 49,350 tonnes by 4.17% from 1,184,350 tonnes last week, down 215,000 tonnes by 15.93% from 1,350,000 tonnes last month, and down 679,000 tonnes by 37.43% from 1,814,000 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,324,000 tonnes. 

 

Operation rates for soybean crush have fractionally risen this week (Nov. 9th-15th). The crush at domestic mills totals 1,635,100 tonnes (meal 1,291,729 tonnes and oil 310,669 tonnes), up 87,650 tonnes, or 5.66%, from 1,547,450 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) reach 45.10%, up 2.42 percentage points from 42.68% in the previous week. Soybean crush is predicted to continue the growth to around 1.68 mln tonnes next week and to 1.75 mln tonnes that following week. With rising soybean crush, soybean oil stocks will probably slow down downside pace. 

 

Fig.: China’s Soybean Oil Stocks in Recent Years