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Daily Review on Grain Market in China--18/11/2019

Today (Nov. 18), the market for grains in China is shown as follows:

Corn:

Domestic corn price stays stable mostly but with rises in some Shandong enterprises today. The price prevails at 1,950-2,030 yuan/tonne among deep-processing enterprises in Shandong up by 10-40 yuan/tonne mostly from last Friday. At Jinzhou port, Liaoning, the purchasing price of new corn in 2019 (moisture 14.5% and test weight over 720 g/L) is 1,840-1,855 yuan/tonne unchanged with yesterday, and the FOB price is 1,890-1,905 yuan/tonne; while the purchasing price of corn (moisture below 15% and test weight 690-700 g/L) is 1,810-1,825 yuan/tonne unchanged from yesterday. At Bayuquan port, new corn in 2019 is traded at 1,815-1,820 yuan/tonne (test weight 700 g/L) unchanged with yesterday and 1,840 yuan/tonne (test weight 720 g/L) the same as yesterday. At Shekou port, Guangdong, the second-class corn is steadily priced at 1,970-1,980 yuan/tonne with no considerable change from last Friday, while the first-class corn is priced at 2,040 yuan/tonne individually.

After a continuous decrease of corn price in deep-processing enterprises in Shandong, the arrivals of corn fall again, and the prices in some Shandong enterprises keep increasing by 10-30 yuan/tonne. In addition, snowfall is widespread in Northeast China, especially in Heilongjiang Province, which has still expanded as of Nov. 18 morning. The trading of corn may be affected by the adverse weather. Therefore, buyers should keep eyes on the arrival condition of enterprises in recent two days. As enterprises mostly maintain safety inventory, and if the arrivals of corn continue to decline, corn prices will still remain supported.

Sorghum:

Domestic sorghum prices are stable with some rises today, of which dried sorghum is priced at 2,400-2,500 yuan/tonne. (In Heilongjiang, dried sorghum 2,200 yuan/tonne in Qiqihar. In Inner Mongolia, raw sorghum 2,260 yuan/tonne and dried sorghum up 40 yuan to 2,400 yuan/tonne in Hinggan League; 2019 dried sorghum 2,440 yuan/tonne in Chifeng. In Jilin Province, dried sorghum 2,460 yuan/tonne in Songyuan and up 80 yuan to 2,400 yuan/tonne in Qian’an, and raw sorghum 2,300 yuan/tonne and dried sorghum up 20 yuan to 2,400 yuan in Taonan.) Prices for new sorghum keep firm at present, which can be contributed to its smaller planting acreage, as well as lower quality and production due to the frost earlier than usual. But the weak demand is also weighing on the prices. So short-term prices are likely to keep steady with narrow fluctuations. 

Imported sorghum prices are mixed today, of which Australian sorghum is priced at 2,400-2,500 yuan/tonne at domestic ports. (Tianjin port: Australian raw sorghum 2,400 and dried sorghum 2,500 yuan/tonne; US raw sorghum 2,130 and dried sorghum 2,270 yuan/tonne. Guangdong port: US raw sorghum down 20 to 2,100 yuan/tonne. Suqian: US sorghum up 20 yuan to 2,440 yuan/tonne.) In terms of prices, sorghum has lost a competitive advantage over corn. Besides, hog prices have begun to fall recently. The time for China and the United States to sign their phase one deal is expected to draw near, and the Chinese yuan has soared past 7, which will reduced the import cost. These factors are dragging down imported sorghum prices. However, it is hard for US sorghum to go into Chinese market due to the trade frictions. Sorghum supply sees very few increases in China now, which is a support to the prices at ports. Short-term prices are predicted to keep steady with narrow fluctuations. Participants can pay attention to the outcome of trade negotiations. 

Barley:

Imported barley prices are stable with some rises today, of which Australian raw barley is at 2,120-2,130 yuan/tonne at domestic ports. (Nantong port: Canadian raw barley for feed 1,870 yuan/tonne, Australian raw barley 2,080-2,100, French barley 1,770-1,780, and Ukrainian raw barley 1,730-1,740; Guangdong port: Ukrainian barley 1,730 yuan/tonne.) In terms of prices, barley has lost a competitive advantage over corn. And the demand from hog breeding is also small due to the African swine fever, which is a curb on the spot market. Barley imports total 5 cargoes, or around 296,000 tonnes, for October shipments in South China. Growing port supply is now weighing down the market. But importers have a strong intention to prop up prices due to low stocks and stubbornly high import cost from Australia. Short-term prices are predicted to keep steady with narrow fluctuations.

(USD $1=CNY 7)