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Daily Review on Meal Market in China--18/11/2019

Today (Nov. 18), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: White House said that the United States and China are getting close to a trade agreement, and chief negotiators from both sides had constructive talks to discuss each other’s core issues for the first phasein a phone call Saturday. US soybean closed higher last Friday. And meal futures are expanding gains on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices rise by 20-40 yuan/tonne, and there is demand at low levels. Specifically, the price settles at 2,920-3,100 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 3,140, Shandong 3,060-3,070, Jiangsu 2,990-3,020, Dongguan 2,940-2,950, and Guangxi 2,940-2,960, Fujian 2920-2,950). Some 2.3 million tonnes of cargoes are being held up at ports in north China, of which 80% are US soybeans. The delay in customs clearance has tightened commercial supply at present. Amid low soybean crush, soybean meal stocks have fallen to a nearly three-year low, creating an overall tight supply scenario in northern markets. Besides, the demand outlook for meal products is expected to get bright with a rise in hog amount, especially now as China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs calls on the nine provinces, districts and cities in south China to make all-out efforts to accelerate the recovery in hog production. But there are still restraints, including the falling pig prices, the sign of outbreaks of the African swine fever in some regions and the slack demand from aquaculture in south China. Due to short covering on the DCE, there are signs of stronger upward potential in meal futures in the short term, and spot soybean meal will hopefully follow to fluctuate to rebound. Buyers can buy on the dips for adequate stocks.

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal rises in price today, of which it settles up 10-30 yuan/tonne at 2180-2220 yuan/tonne (Guangxi 2,180, stable; Guangdong 2140; Fujian 2160). The rapeseed is still supported by the unsolved issues between China and Canada, so most factories have no cargoes of rapeseed arriving at ports in the late period. Thus, rapeseed supply is predicted to be tightening increasingly, and oil mill will reduce the operation rate. In consequence, rapeseed price may stop declining and start rebounding after a continuous fall. Nevertheless, recent pork prices fall back continuously, and the demand for South aquaculture is also entering into an off-season. Last week, the inventory of rapeseed meal increased to 23,000 tonnes in coastal areas, up by 15% from the previous week. Therefore, the rises of rapeseed meal price are curbed. Buyers can make proper replenishment on the dips to keep a safety inventory.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable with some declines today. It is8,900-9,300 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content, 9,100-9,600 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 9,500-10,100 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 9,900-10,400 yuan/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content, all with a partial decline of 100 yuan/tonne. With new-season investigations underway in the centre-north regions, the Peruvian government has set the fishing quotas at 2.786 mln tonnes, which is above the market estimate, so Chinese traders now have strong sentiment to wait on the sidelines. The aquaculture has been over in north China as the weather gets colder, and the African swine fever is still spreading, which still curbs the demand for feed. The overall market is predicted to continue the weak trend in the near term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 92,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 32,000 tonnes, Shanghai 47,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 9,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: it is quoted steadily at 1,180 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content and 1,380 USD/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard SD with 65% protein content is 1,100 USD/tonne, and super SD with 68% protein content at 1,330 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal price stays stable with some weak fluctuations of 20-30 yuan/tonne today. The demand is affected by narrowed price gap between soybean meal and cottonseed meal, and some factories have slow pace of delivery. Besides, there is a sign that the ASF will spread again in some regions, and the demand for South aquaculture is entering into an off-season period. In short, cottonseed meal market is dragged down by all these factors above. Nevertheless, the price of cottonseed is high. And meals on DCE today extend gains, and spot soybean meal rises by 20-40 yuan/tonne. Thus, factories have a strong will to raise price, and the falling space of cottonseed meal may not be too much. Buyers can make proper replenishment upon low and stable prices. One more thing, White House said China and U.S. were getting close to the “Phase One” deal. U.S.-China trade negotiators had constructive talks about each other’s core issues for the first phase of an initial trade agreement in a phone call on last Friday.

(USD $1=CNY 7)