Price: Imported soybean supply to distribution markets remains scanty at ports, and traders are in fair shipments. And China’s Ministry of Commerce said that the removal of tariffs is of significance for China and the United States to reach a deal. Due to the uncertain trade relations, US soybean imports may be limited. The overall distributed market for imported soybeans is predicted to be steady with narrow adjustments.

Crush: Operation rates for soybean crush has fractionally risen this week (Nov. 9th-15th). The crush at domestic mills totals 1,635,100 tonnes (meal 1,291,729 tonnes and oil 310,669 tonnes), up 87,650 tonnes, or 5.66%, from 1,547,450 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) reach 45.10%, up 2.42 percentage points from 42.68% in the previous week. Soybean crush is predicted to continue the growth to around 1.68 mln tonnes next week and to 1.75 mln tonnes that following week. 

As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 10,169,550 tonnes in the crushing year of 2019/20 (from October 1st, 2019), down 2,084,235 tonnes, or 17.00%, from 12,253,785 tonnes of the same period last year. In 2019 (from Jan. 1st, 2019), national soybean crush amounts to 72,210,965 tonnes, down 5,472,615 tonnes, or 7.04%, from 77,683,580 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2018. 

Inventory: Imported soybean stocks decrease slightly this week as soybean crush is raised to 1.63 mln tonnes. In the week as of November 15th, imported soybean stocks in mills in domestic coastal regions total 3,105,600 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, down 78,400 tonnes by 2.46% from 3,184,000 tonnes last week and down by 51.37% from 6,386,300 tonnes of the same period last year. Soybean crush will continue to go higher to 1.68 mln tonnes and 1.75 mln tonnes in the next two weeks, so the stocks will likely drop accordingly.

Import and its outlook: According to Cofeed, imported soybean is 31 cargoes with 1.998 mln tonnes this week, a total of 58 cargoes with 3.752 mln tonnes for November so far. The import is predicted to be 125 cargoes with 8.1085 mln tonnes for November and 9 mln tonnes for December, and 7 mln tonnes and 3.9 mln tonnes respectively for January and February, 2020. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.  

Price: This week (Nov. 11-15), domestic soybean meal prices continue declining overall. As of this Friday, the price settles down 30-80 yuan/tonne at 2,900-3,100 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions. 

Inventory: Soybean meal stocks continue falling to a nearly six-year low this week due to renewed strong trading and slightly quicker consumption speed. In the week as of November 15th, the inventory in mills in domestic coastal regions totals 355,100 tonnes, down 57,000 tonnes by 13.83% from 412,100 tonnes last week and down by 65.44% from 1,027,600 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. The inventory is predicted to slow down declines with higher crush in the next two weeks, but the total tight supply may not ease until late December. 

Price: This week (Nov. 11-15), domestic soybean oil prices decline. As of this Friday, the price for GB Grade I settles down 50-150 yuan/tonne at 6,490-6,600 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions. 

Inventory: Despite the overall low soybean crush alongside, mills have a backlog of contracts to fulfill as they have seen strong trading upon November and December basis in soybean oil market since the National Day holidays, so soybean oil stocks decline further this week. In the week as of Nov. 15th, China’s commercial inventory has totaled 1,135,000 tonnes, down 49,350 tonnes by 4.17% from 1,184,350 tonnes last week, down 215,000 tonnes by 15.93% from 1,350,000 tonnes last month, and down 679,000 tonnes by 37.43% from 1,814,000 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,324,000 tonnes.