China’s Palm Oil Stocks and Arrivals Weekly (Week 46, 2019)

2019-11-19 www.cofeed.com

I. National stocks

This week (as of Nov. 15), edible palm oil stock totals 650,800 tonnes at domestic ports, up 6.6% from 610,500 tonnes last week and up 78,700 tonnes or 13.76% from 572,100 tonnes the same period last month and up 225,600 tonnes or 53.06% from 425,200 tonnes the same period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports totals 142,800 tonnes, up 9,700 tonnes or 7.3% from 133,100 tonnes last week.

Domestic palm oil stock this week continues to pick up due to an increase of cargoes arriving at ports. As Chinese buyers purchase more cargoes of palm oil from November to December, the monthly import volume of RBD palm olein from November to December is predicted to reach around 550,000 tonnes on average. Due to the shrinking demand under colder weather, palm oil stock is likely to keep an upward trend.

Region /Port	Edible Palm Oil Stocks（0'000 mT）					Industrial Palm Oil Stocks
Region /Port	W46	W45	Change	M-O-M	Y-O-Y	W46	W45	Change
Tianjin Port	5.5	5.7	-0.2	-50.20%	-44.40%	4.3	4.25	0.05
Hebei	0.88	0.25	0.63	35.40%	193.30%	0.2	0.05	0.15
Shandong Port	4.82	4.21	0.61	16.70%	135.12%	1.46	1.03	0.43
East China	22.25	17.45	4.8	34.03%	253.10%	5.75	5.35	0.4
Guangdong	26.3	26.7	-0.4	55.60%	109.22%	2.3	2.4	-0.1
Guangxi	1.93	2.34	-0.41	-51.50%	-16.08%	0.27	0.23	0.04
Fujian	3.4	4.4	-1	-12.80%	62.70%	0	0	0
Total：	65.08	61.05	4.03	13.76%	53.06%	14.28	13.31	0.97

Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years

II. Goods Arrivals

According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the estimate of import volume for November this week is 670,000 tonnes unchanged with last week (RBD palm olein 550,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes), and the estimate for December also remains flat at 670,000 tonnes compared with last week (RBD palm olein 550,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes).

III. Margins and Shipments

Date	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/mT）	Duty Paid (RBM/mT)	DCE (RBM/mT)	Import Margin
2019/11/4	Dec. 2019	620	5246	5300	54
2019/11/5	Dec. 2019	660	5580	5404	-176
2019/11/6	Dec. 2019	645	5430	5382	-48
2019/11/7	Dec. 2019	650	5489	5312	-177
2019/11/8	Dec. 2019	645	5415	5338	-77
2019/11/11	Dec. 2019	655	5517	5542	25
2019/11/12	Dec. 2019	665	5603	5524	-79
2019/11/12	Jan.2019	675	5686	5524	-162
2019/11/13	Dec. 2019	665	5616	5472	-144
2019/11/13	Jan.2019	675	5699	5472	-227
2019/11/14	Dec. 2019	660	5575	5438	-137
2019/11/14	Jan.2019	670	5659	5438	-221
2019/11/15	Dec. 2019	662.5	5585	5372	-213
2019/11/15	Jan.2019	675	5689	5372	-317

Date	Cargoes	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/mT）	Duty Paid (RBM/mT)	Qty. （0'000 mT）
2019/11/11	0
2019/11/12	0
2019/11/13	0
2019/11/14	0
2019/11/15	0

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