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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 11/19/2019

2019-11-19 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,480  3,120  3,696  4,205  150 -659 3,954 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,540  3,090  3,684  4,205  150 -671 3,940 
Costal Shandong 6,560  3,070  3,672  4,205  150 -683 3,935 
Jiangsu 6,500  2,990  3,597  4,205  150 -758 3,949 
Guangdong 6,580  2,910  3,549  4,205  150 -806 3,930 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,480  3,120  3,696  4,115  150 -569 3,840 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,540  3,090  3,684  4,115  150 -581 3,826 
Costal Shandong 6,560  3,070  3,672  4,115  150 -593 3,821 
Jiangsu 6,500  2,990  3,597  4,115  150 -668 3,835 
Guangdong 6,580  2,910  3,549  4,115  150 -716 3,816 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,480  3,120  3,761  3,287  150  324  2,710 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,540  3,090  3,749  3,287  150  312  2,695 
Costal Shandong 6,560  3,070  3,737  3,287  150  300  2,690 
Jiangsu 6,500  2,990  3,662  3,287  150  225  2,705 
Guangdong 6,580  2,910  3,615  3,287  150  178  2,685 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,480  3,120  3,631  3,180  150  301  2,739 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,540  3,090  3,618  3,180  150  288  2,725 
Costal Shandong 6,560  3,070  3,606  3,180  150  276  2,721 
Jiangsu 6,500  2,990  3,532  3,180  150  202  2,734 
Guangdong 6,580  2,910  3,483  3,180  150  153  2,716 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,480  3,120  3,664  3,470  150  44  3,065 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,540  3,090  3,651  3,470  150  31  3,051 
Costal Shandong 6,560  3,070  3,639  3,470  150  19  3,046 
Jiangsu 6,500  2,990  3,565  3,470  150  -55  3,060 
Guangdong 6,580  2,910  3,516  3,470  150  -104  3,041 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,630  3,270  3,677  3,430  160  87  3,162 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,480  3,120  3,533  3,550  160  -177  3,342 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,540  3,090  3,518  3,570  160  -212  3,355 
Boxing, Shandong 6,620  3,080  3,523  3,590  160  -227  3,364 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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