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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 11/20/2019

2019-11-20 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,570  3,110  3,705  4,244  150 -689 3,982 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,600  3,090  3,695  4,244  150 -699 3,975 
Costal Shandong 6,680  3,070  3,695  4,244  150 -700 3,955 
Jiangsu 6,620  2,980  3,612  4,244  150 -782 3,970 
Guangdong 6,700  2,910  3,572  4,244  150 -822 3,951 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,570  3,110  3,705  4,159  150 -604 3,874 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,600  3,090  3,695  4,159  150 -614 3,867 
Costal Shandong 6,680  3,070  3,695  4,159  150 -615 3,848 
Jiangsu 6,620  2,980  3,612  4,159  150 -697 3,862 
Guangdong 6,700  2,910  3,572  4,159  150 -737 3,843 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,570  3,110  3,771  3,309  150  312  2,715 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,600  3,090  3,761  3,309  150  302  2,708 
Costal Shandong 6,680  3,070  3,761  3,309  150  302  2,687 
Jiangsu 6,620  2,980  3,678  3,309  150  219  2,703 
Guangdong 6,700  2,910  3,639  3,309  150  180  2,682 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,570  3,110  3,640  3,233  150  257  2,785 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,600  3,090  3,629  3,233  150  246  2,778 
Costal Shandong 6,680  3,070  3,628  3,233  150  245  2,760 
Jiangsu 6,620  2,980  3,546  3,233  150  163  2,774 
Guangdong 6,700  2,910  3,505  3,233  150  122  2,756 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,570  3,110  3,672  3,470  150  52  3,044 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,600  3,090  3,662  3,470  150  42  3,037 
Costal Shandong 6,680  3,070  3,661  3,470  150  41  3,018 
Jiangsu 6,620  2,980  3,579  3,470  150  -41  3,032 
Guangdong 6,700  2,910  3,538  3,470  150  -82  3,013 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,720  3,260  3,683  3,430  160  93  3,144 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,570  3,110  3,539  3,550  160  -171  3,324 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,600  3,090  3,528  3,570  160  -202  3,343 
Boxing, Shandong 6,710  3,080  3,538  3,590  160  -212  3,346 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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