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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 11/21/2019

2019-11-21 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,600  3,120  3,719  4,225  150 -656 3,958 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,600  3,090  3,695  4,225  150 -680 3,951 
Costal Shandong 6,670  3,070  3,693  4,225  150 -682 3,931 
Jiangsu 6,590  2,980  3,606  4,225  150 -769 3,946 
Guangdong 6,700  2,920  3,580  4,225  150 -795 3,927 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,600  3,120  3,719  4,142  150 -573 3,853 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,600  3,090  3,695  4,142  150 -597 3,846 
Costal Shandong 6,670  3,070  3,693  4,142  150 -599 3,826 
Jiangsu 6,590  2,980  3,606  4,142  150 -686 3,841 
Guangdong 6,700  2,920  3,580  4,142  150 -712 3,822 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,600  3,120  3,785  3,296  150  339  2,699 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,600  3,090  3,761  3,296  150  315  2,691 
Costal Shandong 6,670  3,070  3,759  3,296  150  313  2,671 
Jiangsu 6,590  2,980  3,672  3,296  150  226  2,686 
Guangdong 6,700  2,920  3,647  3,296  150  201  2,666 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,600  3,120  3,653  3,220  150  283  2,769 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,600  3,090  3,629  3,220  150  259  2,762 
Costal Shandong 6,670  3,070  3,626  3,220  150  256  2,744 
Jiangsu 6,590  2,980  3,540  3,220  150  170  2,757 
Guangdong 6,700  2,920  3,513  3,220  150  143  2,739 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,570  3,110  3,672  3,470  150  52  3,044 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,600  3,090  3,662  3,470  150  42  3,037 
Costal Shandong 6,680  3,070  3,661  3,470  150  41  3,018 
Jiangsu 6,620  2,980  3,579  3,470  150  -41  3,032 
Guangdong 6,700  2,910  3,538  3,470  150  -82  3,013 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,750  3,270  3,696  3,430  160  106  3,138 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,600  3,120  3,552  3,550  160  -158  3,318 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,600  3,090  3,528  3,570  160  -202  3,343 
Boxing, Shandong 6,720  3,080  3,539  3,590  160  -211  3,344 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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