Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 11/21/2019

2019-11-21 www.cofeed.com

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,600	3,120	3,719	4,225	150	-656	3,958
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,600	3,090	3,695	4,225	150	-680	3,951
Costal Shandong	6,670	3,070	3,693	4,225	150	-682	3,931
Jiangsu	6,590	2,980	3,606	4,225	150	-769	3,946
Guangdong	6,700	2,920	3,580	4,225	150	-795	3,927

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Dec. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,600	3,120	3,719	4,142	150	-573	3,853
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,600	3,090	3,695	4,142	150	-597	3,846
Costal Shandong	6,670	3,070	3,693	4,142	150	-599	3,826
Jiangsu	6,590	2,980	3,606	4,142	150	-686	3,841
Guangdong	6,700	2,920	3,580	4,142	150	-712	3,822

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,600	3,120	3,785	3,296	150	339	2,699
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,600	3,090	3,761	3,296	150	315	2,691
Costal Shandong	6,670	3,070	3,759	3,296	150	313	2,671
Jiangsu	6,590	2,980	3,672	3,296	150	226	2,686
Guangdong	6,700	2,920	3,647	3,296	150	201	2,666

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,600	3,120	3,653	3,220	150	283	2,769
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,600	3,090	3,629	3,220	150	259	2,762
Costal Shandong	6,670	3,070	3,626	3,220	150	256	2,744
Jiangsu	6,590	2,980	3,540	3,220	150	170	2,757
Guangdong	6,700	2,920	3,513	3,220	150	143	2,739

Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,570	3,110	3,672	3,470	150	52	3,044
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,600	3,090	3,662	3,470	150	42	3,037
Costal Shandong	6,680	3,070	3,661	3,470	150	41	3,018
Jiangsu	6,620	2,980	3,579	3,470	150	-41	3,032
Guangdong	6,700	2,910	3,538	3,470	150	-82	3,013

Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang	6,750	3,270	3,696	3,430	160	106	3,138
Dalian, Liaoning	6,600	3,120	3,552	3,550	160	-158	3,318
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,600	3,090	3,528	3,570	160	-202	3,343
Boxing, Shandong	6,720	3,080	3,539	3,590	160	-211	3,344
Remarks: 1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory. 2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%; Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%. 3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price. 4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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