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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 11/22/2019

2019-11-22 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,540  3,100  3,692  4,198  150 -656 3,931 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,550  3,090  3,686  4,198  150 -662 3,928 
Costal Shandong 6,620  3,060  3,675  4,198  150 -673 3,912 
Jiangsu 6,570  2,980  3,603  4,198  150 -746 3,924 
Guangdong 6,650  2,920  3,570  4,198  150 -778 3,904 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,540  3,100  3,692  4,116  150 -574 3,827 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,550  3,090  3,686  4,116  150 -580 3,825 
Costal Shandong 6,620  3,060  3,675  4,116  150 -591 3,808 
Jiangsu 6,570  2,980  3,603  4,116  150 -664 3,820 
Guangdong 6,650  2,920  3,570  4,116  150 -696 3,801 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,540  3,100  3,757  3,281  150  326  2,687 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,550  3,090  3,751  3,281  150  320  2,685 
Costal Shandong 6,620  3,060  3,741  3,281  150  310  2,667 
Jiangsu 6,570  2,980  3,668  3,281  150  237  2,680 
Guangdong 6,650  2,920  3,637  3,281  150  206  2,659 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,540  3,100  3,626  3,200  150  276  2,750 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,550  3,090  3,620  3,200  150  270  2,748 
Costal Shandong 6,620  3,060  3,609  3,200  150  259  2,732 
Jiangsu 6,570  2,980  3,537  3,200  150  187  2,744 
Guangdong 6,650  2,920  3,504  3,200  150  154  2,725 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,540  3,100  3,659  3,470  150  39  3,051 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,550  3,090  3,653  3,470  150  33  3,048 
Costal Shandong 6,620  3,060  3,642  3,470  150  22  3,032 
Jiangsu 6,570  2,980  3,570  3,470  150  -50  3,044 
Guangdong 6,650  2,920  3,537  3,470  150  -83  3,025 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,690  3,250  3,670  3,430  160  80  3,150 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,540  3,100  3,526  3,550  160  -184  3,330 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,550  3,090  3,520  3,570  160  -210  3,353 
Boxing, Shandong 6,650  3,080  3,528  3,590  160  -222  3,358 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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