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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 11/25/2019

2019-11-25 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,560  3,120  3,711  4,177  150 -616 3,899 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,550  3,090  3,686  4,177  150 -641 3,902 
Costal Shandong 6,610  3,060  3,673  4,177  150 -654 3,887 
Jiangsu 6,580  2,980  3,604  4,177  150 -723 3,895 
Guangdong 6,650  2,900  3,555  4,177  150 -773 3,878 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,560  3,120  3,711  4,106  150 -545 3,810 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,550  3,090  3,686  4,106  150 -570 3,812 
Costal Shandong 6,610  3,060  3,673  4,106  150 -583 3,798 
Jiangsu 6,580  2,980  3,604  4,106  150 -652 3,805 
Guangdong 6,650  2,900  3,555  4,106  150 -702 3,788 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,560  3,120  3,777  3,267  150  360  2,665 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,550  3,090  3,751  3,267  150  334  2,667 
Costal Shandong 6,610  3,060  3,739  3,267  150  322  2,652 
Jiangsu 6,580  2,980  3,670  3,267  150  253  2,659 
Guangdong 6,650  2,900  3,621  3,267  150  204  2,642 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,560  3,120  3,646  3,192  150  304  2,736 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,550  3,090  3,620  3,192  150  278  2,738 
Costal Shandong 6,610  3,060  3,607  3,192  150  265  2,724 
Jiangsu 6,580  2,980  3,539  3,192  150  197  2,731 
Guangdong 6,650  2,900  3,488  3,192  150  146  2,715 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,560  3,120  3,678  3,470  150  58  3,046 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,550  3,090  3,653  3,470  150  33  3,048 
Costal Shandong 6,610  3,060  3,640  3,470  150  20  3,034 
Jiangsu 6,580  2,980  3,572  3,470  150  -49  3,041 
Guangdong 6,650  2,900  3,521  3,470  150  -99  3,025 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,710  3,270  3,690  3,430  160  100  3,146 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,560  3,120  3,546  3,550  160  -164  3,326 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,550  3,090  3,520  3,570  160  -210  3,353 
Boxing, Shandong 6,610  3,080  3,522  3,590  160  -228  3,366 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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