According to Cofeed, on the week as of November 22nd, details of soybean oil inventories and outstanding contracts are as follows:

 

Mills are busy fulfilling contracts which were signed upon forward basis previously, so soybean oil stocks further decline this week, especially in north China. But mills in south China have seen obviously slower declines and even some small rises. In the week as of Nov. 22nd, China’s commercial inventory has totaled 1,085,800 tonnes, down 49,200 tonnes by 4.33% from 1,135,000 tonnes last week, down 249,700 tonnes by 18.7% from 1,335,500 tonnes last month, and down 719,800 tonnes by 39.86% from 1,805,600 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,316,600 tonnes. 

 

Due to handsome crush margins and continuous arrivals of soybeans at their factories, mills are active in picking up operation rates, so soybean crush has climbed higher than expected. The crush at domestic mills totals 1,770,700 tonnes (meal 1,398,853 tonnes and oil 336,433 tonnes), up 135,600 tonnes, or 8.29%, from 1,635,100 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) reach 48.84%, up 3.74 percentage points from 45.10% in the previous week. Soybean crush is predicted to continue the growth to around 1.81 mln tonnes next week and to 1.84 mln tonnes that following week. The decline in soybean oil stocks may go slower with rising operation rates.

 

Fig.: China’s Soybean Oil Stocks in Recent Years