I. Soybean
Price: Imported soybean supply to distribution markets remains scanty at ports, and traders are in fair shipments. Besides, US President Donald Trump said that he might not roll back some additional tariffs for a phase one deal and threatened that he would hike the tariffs on Chinese commodities if two countries failed to reach a deal. And Reuters reported that a phase one deal between China and the US could slide into 2020. Due to such an uncertain outlook, US soybean imports may be limited. The overall distributed market for imported soybeans is predicted to be steady in the near term.
Crush: This week (Nov. 16th-22nd), due to handsome crush margins and continuous arrivals of soybeans at their factories, mills are active in picking up operation rates, so soybean crush has climbed higher than expected. The crush at domestic mills totals 1,770,700 tonnes (meal 1,398,853 tonnes and oil 336,433 tonnes), up 135,600 tonnes, or 8.29%, from 1,635,100 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) reach 48.84%, up 3.74 percentage points from 45.10% in the previous week. Soybean crush is predicted to continue the growth to around 1.81 mln tonnes next week and to 1.84 mln tonnes that following week.
Soybean crush nationwide is estimated at 7.27 mln tonnes in October at current utilization rate, above the 6.69 mln tonnes in September and also above 7.19 mln tonnes of the corresponding period last year.
As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 11,940,250 tonnes in the crushing year of 2019/20 (from October 1st, 2019), down 2,008,335 tonnes, or 14.39%, from 13,948,585 tonnes of the same period last year. In 2019 (from Jan. 1st, 2019), national soybean crush amounts to 73,981,665 tonnes, down 5,396,715 tonnes, or 6.79%, from 79,378,380 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2018.
Inventory: Imported soybean stocks reduce further this week as soybean crush move higher to 1.77 mln tonnes. In the week as of November 22nd, imported soybean stocks in mills in domestic coastal regions total 2,969,800 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, down 135,800 tonnes by 4.37% from 3,105,600 tonnes last week and down by 55.41% from 6,660,300 tonnes of the same period last year. Soybean crush will continue to go higher to 1.81mln tonnes and 1.84 mln tonnes in the next two weeks, so the stocks will likely continue to decline.
Import and its outlook: According to Cofeed, imported soybean is 30 cargoes with 1.9405 mln tonnes this week, a total of 88 cargoes with 5.6925 mln tonnes for November so far. The import is predicted to be 125 cargoes with 8.1085 mln tonnes for November and 9.3 mln tonnes for December, and 7 mln tonnes and 4.2 mln tonnes respectively for January and February, 2020. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.
China's Customs:
II. Soybean Meal
Price: This week (Nov. 18-22), domestic soybean meal prices remain fluctuating overall. As of this Friday, the price goes ups and downs 10-20 yuan/tonne to settle at 2,900-3,110 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions.
Inventory: Soybean meal stocks slightly increase this week due to higher soybean crush, but still remain at a relatively low level. In the week as of November 22nd, the inventory in mills in domestic coastal regions totals 371,300 tonnes, up 16,200 tonnes by 4.56% from 355,100 tonnes last week yet down by 62.90% from 1,001,000 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. The inventory is predicted to go steadily higher as mills will continue to pick up soybean crush in the next two weeks, but the total tight supply may not ease until late December.
China's Customs:
III.Soybean Oil
Price: This week (Nov. 18-22), domestic soybean oil prices post rises. As of this Friday, the price for GB Grade I settles up 40-90 yuan/tonne at 6,550-6,640 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions.
Inventory: Mills are busy fulfilling contracts which were signed upon forward basis previously, so soybean oil stocks further decline this week, especially in north China. But mills in south China have seen obviously slower declines and even some small rises. In the week as of Nov. 22nd, China’s commercial inventory has totaled 1,085,800 tonnes, down 49,200 tonnes by 4.33% from 1,135,000 tonnes last week, down 249,700 tonnes by 18.7% from 1,335,500 tonnes last month, and down 719,800 tonnes by 39.86% from 1,805,600 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,316,600 tonnes.
China's Customs:
China's Soybean Oil Import by Country for oct 2019
|
Country
|
This Month
|
M-O-M
|
Y-O-Y
|
|
Qty.
|
Price
|
Qty.Var.
|
Price Var.
|
Qty.Var.
|
Price Var.
|
tonnes
|
USD/tonne
|
tonnes
|
USD/tonne
|
tonnes
|
USD/tonne
|
Argentina
|
30500
|
673.55
|
8000
|
30.64
|
21183.28
|
-107.14
|
USA
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
-1.039
|
-717.01
|
Brazil
|
17500
|
669.71
|
0
|
26.79
|
-28740
|
-83.72
|
Ukraine
|
9571.33
|
732.96
|
-4812.57
|
8.48
|
7597.01
|
|
Belarus
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
-790.20
|
Russia
|
39451
|
716.99
|
2679
|
12.87
|
32128.932
|
716.99
|
Thailand
|
0
|
|
-0.11
|
|
0
|
|
Italy
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
South Korea
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
North Korea
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
-798.67
|
Vietnam
|
204.2
|
1030.06
|
125.18
|
20.20
|
129.58
|
|
Taiwan, China
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
Malaysia
|
0
|
|
-16.23
|
-1185.15
|
0
|
|
Netherlands
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
Bosnia-Herzegovina
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
Sweden
|
46.25
|
1870.18
|
46.25
|
1870.18
|
46.25
|
|
India
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
Canada
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
-0.01
|
|
Paraguay
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
HK, China
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
France
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
Japan
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
Singapore
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
Austria
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
Spain
|
0.01
|
3500.00
|
0.01
|
3500.00
|
-0.26
|
|
Turkey
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
-1022.64
|
-782.42
|
Serbia
|
800.96
|
688.35
|
800.96
|
688.35
|
800.96
|
688.35
|
Greece
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
-0.138
|
|
Kazakhstan
|
115.84
|
734.63
|
115.84
|
734.63
|
115.84
|
734.63
|
Israel
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
Germany
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
-0.074
|
|
TPKM
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
Poland
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
Total Qty.
|
98189.6
|
697.61
|
6938.33
|
16.75
|
32237.692
|
-84.09
|
China's Soybean Oil Export by Country for Oct 2019
|
Country
|
This Month
|
M-O-M
|
Y-O-Y
|
Qty.
tonnes
|
Price
USD/tonne
|
Qty.Var.
tonnes
|
Price Var.
USD/tonne
|
Qty.Var.
tonnes
|
Price Var.
USD/tonne
|
Japan
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
Singapore
|
306.34
|
895.72
|
38.6
|
2.17
|
109.48
|
-322.95
|
Myanmar
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
North Korea
|
10661.66
|
1080.01
|
1430.29
|
27.93
|
701.77
|
-12.59
|
HK, China
|
3832.09
|
728.70
|
1203.59
|
8.67
|
-296.12
|
-41.02
|
Macao China
|
9.5
|
1082.32
|
0
|
8.00
|
0
|
3.16
|
Taiwan, China
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
Maldives
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
South Korea
|
26.59
|
1316.36
|
-37.91
|
207.48
|
-42.28
|
138.07
|
Malaysia
|
378.15
|
758.68
|
-294.16
|
16.87
|
378.15
|
758.68
|
Vietnam
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
Angola
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
Niger
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
Mongolia
|
79.02
|
1009.86
|
-0.04
|
3.64
|
4.40
|
4.30
|
Mozambique
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
Pakistan
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
Cook Islands
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
Sierra Leone
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
Bahamas
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
-0.20
|
-6250.00
|
Bangladesh
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
Philippines
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
Italy
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
Australia
|
18.96
|
1198.26
|
18.96
|
1198.26
|
18.96
|
1198.26
|
Canada
|
0
|
|
-40
|
-945.50
|
-40.00
|
-939.25
|
New Zealand
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
Zimbabwe
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
Nigeria
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
Tunisia
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
Venezuela
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
Papua New Guinea
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
0
|
|
USA
|
0
|
|
-6.09
|
-1244.66
|
0
|
|
Ethiopia
|
109.36
|
938.00
|
109.36
|
938.00
|
109.36
|
938.00
|
Indonesia
|
0.01
|
|
0.01
|
|
0
|
|
Total
|
15421.68
|
980.36
|
2422.61
|
14.95
|
943.53
|
-21.48
|
