China’s Palm Oil Stocks and Arrivals Weekly (Week 47, 2019)

2019-11-26 www.cofeed.com

I. National stocks

This week (as of Nov. 22), edible palm oil stock totals 678,600 tonnes at domestic ports, up 4.3% from 650,800 tonnes last week and up 98,600 tonnes or 17% from 580,000 tonnes the same period last month and up 265,300 tonnes or 64.2% from 413,300 tonnes the same period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports totals 129,000 tonnes, down 13,800 tonnes or 9.7% from 142,800 tonnes last week.

The price gap between soybean oil and palm oil continues narrowing this week. As of this Friday, the price gap is 968 yuan/tonne, narrowing 120 yuan/tonne from 1,088 yuan/tonne last week. Besides, the usage volume for palm oil as blending oil will be also restricted with the temperature decreasing, and the shipment of palm oil turns slack currently. This week, the trading volume of palm oil totals 14,700 tonnes, down by 30,300 tonnes or 67.3% from 45,000 tonnes last week. In addition, the cargoes of palm oil arriving at ports keep increasing this week, and domestic palm oil stock also keep rising. As Chinese buyers purchase more cargoes of palm oil from November to December, the monthly import volume of RBD palm olein from November to December is predicted to reach around 555,000 tonnes on average. Meanwhile, palm oil stock is likely to keep an upward trend due to the shrinking demand under colder weather.

Region /Port	Edible Palm Oil Stocks（0'000 mT）					Industrial Palm Oil Stocks
Region /Port	W47	W46	Change	M-O-M	Y-O-Y	W47	W46	Change
Tianjin Port	6.4	5.5	0.9	-34.70%	-36.60%	3.6	4.3	-0.7
Hebei	0.7	0.88	-0.18	40.00%	133.00%	0.15	0.2	-0.05
Shandong Port	5.46	4.82	0.64	46.80%	264.00%	1.25	1.46	-0.21
East China	26.55	22.25	4.3	63.90%	118.33%	5.15	5.75	-0.6
Guangdong	24.65	26.3	-1.65	18.22%	113.40%	2.45	2.3	0.15
Guangxi	1.55	1.93	-0.38	-53.45%	-30.20%	0.3	0.27	0.03
Fujian	2.55	3.4	-0.85	-29.20%	-27.10%	0	0	0
Total：	67.86	65.08	2.78	17.00%	64.20%	12.9	14.28	-1.38

Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years

II. Goods Arrivals

According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the estimate of import volume for November this week is 720,000 tonnes, which has increased by 50,000 tonnes from last week (RBD palm olein 600,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes). And the estimate for December also remains flat at 670,000 tonnes compared with last week (RBD palm olein 550,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes).

III. Margins and Shipments

Date	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/mT）	Duty Paid (RBM/mT)	DCE (RBM/mT)	Import Margin
2019/11/18	Dec. 2019	660	5567	5390	-177
2019/11/19	Dec. 2019	662.5	5599	5438	-161
2019/11/19	Jan.2019	675	5703	5438	-265
2019/11/20	Dec. 2019	670	5665	5626	-39
2019/11/20	Jan.2019	675	5707	5626	-81
2019/11/21	Dec. 2019	677.5	5735	5554	-181
2019/11/21	Jan.2019	680	5755	5554	-201
2019/11/21	Feb.2019	595	5881	5794	-87
2019/11/22	Dec. 2019	675	5708	5564	-144
2019/11/22	Jan.2019	680	5749	5564	-185
2019/11/22	Feb.2019	687.5	5812	5780	-32

Date	Cargoes	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/mT）	Duty Paid (RBM/mT)	Qty. （0'000 mT）
2019/11/18	0
2019/11/19	0
2019/11/20	1	Dec. 2019	663.5	5607	1.2
2019/11/20	1	Dec. 2019	665	5620	1.2
2019/11/20	1	Jan.2019	673	5687	1.2
2019/11/20	1	Jan.2019	675	5703	1.2
2019/11/21	0
2019/11/22	0

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