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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 11/27/2019

2019-11-27 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,440  3,060  3,641  4,117  150 -626 3,920 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,410  3,070  3,643  4,117  150 -624 3,903 
Costal Shandong 6,450  3,080  3,659  4,117  150 -608 3,894 
Jiangsu 6,430  2,960  3,560  4,117  150 -707 3,903 
Guangdong 6,530  2,870  3,508  4,117  150 -759 3,874 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,440  3,060  3,641  4,057  150 -566 3,830 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,410  3,070  3,643  4,057  150 -564 3,813 
Costal Shandong 6,450  3,080  3,659  4,057  150 -548 3,804 
Jiangsu 6,430  2,960  3,560  4,057  150 -647 3,813 
Guangdong 6,530  2,870  3,508  4,057  150 -699 3,785 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,440  3,060  3,705  3,244  150  311  2,710 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,410  3,070  3,707  3,244  150  313  2,692 
Costal Shandong 6,450  3,080  3,723  3,244  150  329  2,682 
Jiangsu 6,430  2,960  3,624  3,244  150  230  2,692 
Guangdong 6,530  2,870  3,573  3,244  150  179  2,662 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Dec. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,440  3,060  3,577  3,154  150  273  2,758 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,410  3,070  3,579  3,154  150  275  2,742 
Costal Shandong 6,450  3,080  3,594  3,154  150  290  2,733 
Jiangsu 6,430  2,960  3,496  3,154  150  192  2,742 
Guangdong 6,530  2,870  3,443  3,154  150  139  2,715 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,440  3,060  3,609  3,470  150  -11  3,086 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,410  3,070  3,611  3,470  150  -9  3,069 
Costal Shandong 6,450  3,080  3,626  3,470  150  6  3,060 
Jiangsu 6,430  2,960  3,528  3,470  150  -92  3,069 
Guangdong 6,530  2,870  3,475  3,470  150  -145  3,041 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,590  3,210  3,622  3,430  160  32  3,180 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,440  3,060  3,478  3,550  160  -232  3,360 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,410  3,070  3,482  3,570  160  -248  3,371 
Boxing, Shandong 6,420  3,070  3,483  3,590  160  -267  3,384 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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