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Daily Review on Markets for Oilseeds and Oils in China--27/11/2019

Today (Nov. 27), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

Imported soybean: Imported soybeans steady today, among which Kazakhstan soybean is unchanged at 4,180 yuan/tonne, and Ukraine soybean at 3,500 yuan/tonne. Imported soybean supply to distribution markets remains scanty at ports, and traders are in fair shipments. The United States is close to signing a "phase one" trade deal with China, said Donald Trump, after chief trade negotiators from the two countries held a phone call and agreed to carry on negotiations on remaining issues. But both sides have not released specific details, and such an  uncertain prospect for a trade deal is also bullish to domestic distribution markets. The market for imported soybeans will probably keep firm in the short term. 

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices stay stable with some fluctuations of 0.01-0.02 yuan/kg. The cottonseed production is lower than the previous year, so there are not many spot goods available for sale and the supply is tight. Thus, cottonseed market is supported. However, oil mills purchase cottonseed prudently due to little shipping quantity of cottonseed oil and cottonseed meal, some mills even halt the purchase. In consequence, cottonseed market is dragged down. It is expected that short-term cottonseed may fluctuate to adjust but still keep the overall upward trend. Buyers could maintain wait-and-see attitudes.


Summary: U.S. soybean futures fell further on Tuesday on a mix of export competition from South American supplies and uncertainty in US-China trade talks. Oil futures continue to decline yet at a slower pace on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. In the spot markets, soybean oil prices mostly go stable, with some rises of 20-40 yuan/tonne and some further declines of 40 yuan/tonne; palm oil prices are down by 50-120 yuan/tonne against yesterday morning and keep steady from yesterday afternoon. There is some low-level replenishment, but the overall trading remains tepid. In addition to lower exports in Malaysia, the effect of production reduction in palm oil has also gone exhausted, and palm oil stocks in China rose 4% to 680,000 tonnes last week; hence, palm oil futures continue to come under pressure. And due to handsome crush margins, soybean crush rose 8.3% to 1.77 mln tonnes last week and is predicted to go above 1.80 mln tonnes in the coming two weeks, so the oil market is weighed down to continue its declines. But mills have a variety of outstanding contracts and soybean oil stocks are still reducing. Moreover, a survey showed that the severe drought in Indonesia may cut palm oil production, and palm oil production has also been lower in Malaysia since this month, so funds may flood into the market again. The overall oil market is predicted to move upward after thorough declines and full adjustments and to keep its strengthening pattern. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment.

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at6,440-6,630 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, mixed with some rises of 20-40 yuan/tonne and partial further declines of 40-50 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 6,450-6,460, Rizhao traders 6,530, Zhangjiagang traders 6,530, and Guangzhou mills 6,630 and traders 6,440-6,450). 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 5,470-5,640 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. Those who did not offer yesterday afternoon have cut down prices by 50-120 yuan/tonne today, but others have seen smaller declines today and even some rises of 20 yuan/tonne.(Tianjin traders5,600-5,610, flat; Rizhao traders 5,630-5,640, down 90;Zhangjiagang traders 5,550, down 120;Guangzhou traders 5,470, up 20; and Xiamen yet offered). 

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil goes up in price today, of which it settles up 20-40 yuan at 7,640-7,700 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian 7,640; Guangdong yet offered; and Guangxi 7,700.) Tight rapeseed supply, which is caused by rocky relations between China and Canada, has forced mills to lower down operation rates, so rapeseed oil also enters into supply tensions. Meanwhile, the peak season of consumption is underway and mills still have many contracts to be fulfilled. Rapeseed oil stocks will probably decline further, and mills now are in no hurry to make shipments. The overall oil market is positive, but short-term rapeseed oil market is predicted to follow futures to fluctuate frequently. Buyers are suggested not to chase after excessively high prices.

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil price stays stable with some declines of 50-200 yuan/tonne today. The actual transactions of some factories are still not much, and oils on DCE today continue to fall back. Therefore, cottonseed oil market is weighed down. However, the declines of prices are also curbed by low stock of cottonseed oil in some factories and pricey cottonseed. It is predicted that short-term cottonseed oil market may fluctuate to adjust. Additionally, the fundamentals of bulk oils still bull the market, so the outlook is also optimistic relatively. Buyers can make replenishment in small batches upon low and stable prices.

(USD $1=CNY7.03)